CEO of Mercedes-Benz predicts the future...prepare vaseline...

[pimpmaster9000]

I agree with most of what he said:



Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.

[PaperstreetWinston]

interesting indeed. Source? I'd like to see the whole article

[SpicyM]

Oh and Srbija can forget about Kosovo..

[SpicyM]

Originally Posted by crucifissio

Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

They already use a face analyzer in some political show here, nothing new commie. It's a joke and totally stupid.

[INever]

Prepare to meet your alien overlords.

[Sarn]

[JFK]

A lot of it sounds rather idealistic. If you think , Big Energy , Pharma, Oil, will go down without a fight, Think again ! A lot of places now have a license fee, to install Solar and that's just the beginning

[crockett]

This is like a 5 year old article..

[Bladewire]

"Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!"

Ugh

[pimpmaster9000]

Originally Posted by SpicyM

Oh and Srbija can forget about Kosovo..

Oh and croats will still be speaking serbian, no matter how much they change words like "helicopter" to "air-beater" to try and sound different

"air beater"

[SpicyM]

Originally Posted by crucifissio

Oh and croats will still be speaking serbian, no matter how much they change words like "helicopter" to "air-beater" to try and sound different

"air beater"

Really? What I am going to do.. guess we need to change our holiday destination due to this, idiot..

[SpicyM]

Originally Posted by JFK

A lot of it sounds rather idealistic. If you think , Big Energy , Pharma, Oil, will go down without a fight, Think again ! A lot of places now have a license fee, to install Solar and that's just the beginning

Cruci probably forgot where he lives

[Barry-xlovecam]

You can't beat off to software (unless you are really a weird geek).

[Sarn]

Originally Posted by Bladewire

"Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!"

Ugh

No matter how it will be named, important that will use blockchain technology

[NemesisEnforcer]

Originally Posted by crucifissio

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

I've been working on a project to 3D print food.

[pimpmaster9000]

Originally Posted by Sarn

No matter how it will be named, important that will use blockchain technology

it wont because it will still rely on exchangers...this is the weak spot...if everybody accepted blockchain currency and knew how to use a wallet this would be different....

as long as the police can raid exchangers there is 0 security in the currency...

if 2-3 bigger exchangers were hit on the same day, BTC would collapse...

[starling]

I can't say I agree with this whole self driving car hype that nobody will want to own cars because you can call an automatic one. If that was the case why don't people do it now with taxis? Why bother owning a car when you can just call someone to pick you up and take you to where you need to be?

[SpicyM]

Originally Posted by starling

I can't say I agree with this whole self driving car hype that nobody will want to own cars because you can call an automatic one. If that was the case why don't people do it now with taxis? Why bother owning a car when you can just call someone to pick you up and take you to where you need to be?

...why do people still buy books? Actually the local brick-and-mortar bookstores are more and more popular.

These predictions are based on sci-fi delirium of persons similiar to **********ss.

[CoolMikey]

Originally Posted by starling

I can't say I agree with this whole self driving car hype that nobody will want to own cars because you can call an automatic one. If that was the case why don't people do it now with taxis? Why bother owning a car when you can just call someone to pick you up and take you to where you need to be?

Taxis and even uber are relatively expensive because human is involved and that human wants to get paid. So cost of a taxi is cost of the car + cost to pay the driver. Eliminate the driver, and the only cost is the car, making it much cheaper. At that point it would make no sense to own a car, because a big company will always be able to utilize the car more efficiently, maintain it better, etc than you, so their cost per mile driven will be lower.

Unless of course owning a car is more about pleasure of driving than actually getting from place to place.

[SpicyM]

Originally Posted by CoolMikey

Taxis and even uber are relatively expensive because human is involved and that human wants to get paid. So cost of a taxi is cost of the car + cost to pay the driver. Eliminate the driver, and the only cost is the car, making it much cheaper. At that point it would make no sense to own a car, because a big company will always be able to utilize the car more efficiently, maintain it better, etc than you, so their cost per mile driven will be lower.

Unless of course owning a car is more about pleasure of driving than actually getting from place to place.

The question is responsibility..

If the self-driven car kills a human in an accident, who will be responsible? Be sure that someone will. Probably the owner. Would the owner of such a car really trust the computer that much he would let it drive alone without any sort of control? I wouldn't.

There is your theory of driverless taxis

It's a sci-fi that can be easily ruined with legislation. Just like anything else.

[starling]

Originally Posted by CoolMikey

Taxis and even uber are relatively expensive because human is involved and that human wants to get paid. So cost of a taxi is cost of the car + cost to pay the driver. Eliminate the driver, and the only cost is the car, making it much cheaper. At that point it would make no sense to own a car, because a big company will always be able to utilize the car more efficiently, maintain it better, etc than you, so their cost per mile driven will be lower.

Unless of course owning a car is more about pleasure of driving than actually getting from place to place.

Of course companies are going to lower their prices because they don't have to pay the staff, like how self serve tills in supermarkets lowered prices!
Oh wait...

[Sarn]

Originally Posted by crucifissio

it wont because it will still rely on exchangers...this is the weak spot...if everybody accepted blockchain currency and knew how to use a wallet this would be different....

as long as the police can raid exchangers there is 0 security in the currency...

if 2-3 bigger exchangers were hit on the same day, BTC would collapse...

the blockchain is something more than only currency.

In 2016, the central securities depository of the Russian Federation (NSD) announced a pilot project based on the Nxt Blockchain 2.0 platform that would explore the use of blockchain-based automated voting systems. Various regulatory bodies in the music industry have started testing models that use blockchain technology for royalty collection and management of copyrights around the world.

IBM opened a blockchain innovation research centre in Singapore in July 2016. A working group for the World Economic Forum met in November 2016 to discuss the development of governance models related to blockchain.According to Accenture, an application of the diffusion of innovations theory suggests that in 2016 blockchains attained a 13.5% adoption rate within financial services, therefore reaching the early adopters phase. In 2016, industry trade groups joined to create the Global Blockchain Forum, an initiative of the Chamber of Digital Commerce.

In early 2017, the Harvard Business Review suggested that blockchain is a foundational technology and thus "has the potential to create new foundations for our economic and social systems." It further observed that while foundational innovations can have enormous impact, "It will take decades for blockchain to seep into our economic and social infrastructure."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain

[Hannes]

I feel like things might take wrong turn somehow...

[JFK]

Originally Posted by MedCash_Geoff

I feel like things might take wrong turn somehow...

naaaaawwwww..... you sure ?

[Elli]

Makes sense. Why would anyone want to drive a car and be liable for whatever happens if you can just hop in a car that will get you where you need to go while you type your essay or whatever you want to do on the way.

[GAMEFINEST]

Some scary shit

[Sarn]

else interesting thing it is big data!

[CaptainHowdy]

More time for love and play ...

[pimpmaster9000]

Originally Posted by SpicyM

The question is responsibility..

If the self-driven car kills a human in an accident, who will be responsible? Be sure that someone will. Probably the owner. Would the owner of such a car really trust the computer that much he would let it drive alone without any sort of control? I wouldn't.

There is your theory of driverless taxis

It's a sci-fi that can be easily ruined with legislation. Just like anything else.

If it drastically reduces accidents then it will easily get passed...also the rich get richer...will reduce transport costs a lot...factor in cheap electric autonomous vehicles and the prices get even lower...but stuff will get cheaper...

[pimpmaster9000]

Originally Posted by Sarn

the blockchain is something more than only currency.

In 2016, the central securities depository of the Russian Federation (NSD) announced a pilot project based on the Nxt Blockchain 2.0 platform that would explore the use of blockchain-based automated voting systems. Various regulatory bodies in the music industry have started testing models that use blockchain technology for royalty collection and management of copyrights around the world.

IBM opened a blockchain innovation research centre in Singapore in July 2016. A working group for the World Economic Forum met in November 2016 to discuss the development of governance models related to blockchain.According to Accenture, an application of the diffusion of innovations theory suggests that in 2016 blockchains attained a 13.5% adoption rate within financial services, therefore reaching the early adopters phase. In 2016, industry trade groups joined to create the Global Blockchain Forum, an initiative of the Chamber of Digital Commerce.

In early 2017, the Harvard Business Review suggested that blockchain is a foundational technology and thus "has the potential to create new foundations for our economic and social systems." It further observed that while foundational innovations can have enormous impact, "It will take decades for blockchain to seep into our economic and social infrastructure."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain

It's too complicated for mass use...it would have to be indexed in BTC but the transactions would need to be dead simple over phone or card...

[CoolMikey]

Originally Posted by Elli

Makes sense. Why would anyone want to drive a car and be liable for whatever happens if you can just hop in a car that will get you where you need to go while you type your essay or whatever you want to do on the way.

That sounds great in theory, until one day some hacker finds a security hole in the system, making all the vulnerable cars crash at once killing millions of people. So, no thanks, you guys can put your lives in hands of some machine, I'll continue to drive myself as long as I can.

[EddyTheDog]

Originally Posted by CoolMikey

That sounds great in theory, until one day some hacker finds a security hole in the system, making all the vulnerable cars crash at once killing millions of people. So, no thanks, you guys can put your lives in hands of some machine, I'll continue to drive myself as long as I can.

Jebus - You are even more pessimistic than me...

[CoolMikey]

Originally Posted by EddyTheDog

Jebus - You are even more pessimistic than me...

I wouldn't call it pessimistic, it's just reality of the situation.

Self driving car is basically a computer on wheels. So, think about it, if every time your computer crashed or got hacked, etc you had good chance of dieing, would you use it?

And ordinary computer is 100x simpler and safer than self driving car. Self driving car has 100s of sensors/parts, is subjected to vibrations, tempreature extremes, often runs for 10+ years, etc. It's kinda like putting your life in hands of a 10 year old laptop? Fuck that.

[kane]

Originally Posted by SpicyM

The question is responsibility..

If the self-driven car kills a human in an accident, who will be responsible? Be sure that someone will. Probably the owner. Would the owner of such a car really trust the computer that much he would let it drive alone without any sort of control? I wouldn't.

There is your theory of driverless taxis

It's a sci-fi that can be easily ruined with legislation. Just like anything else.

I agree that the owner would likely be responsible for anyone hurt or killed by the driverless car they owned, however, I don't think this is a deal breaker. It will come down to how effective and safe these cars are. If they cause significantly fewer accidents, which would be expected, then I think people will still use them. You would just have to carry insurance just like you do on a regular car.

[slapass]

Originally Posted by starling

I can't say I agree with this whole self driving car hype that nobody will want to own cars because you can call an automatic one. If that was the case why don't people do it now with taxis? Why bother owning a car when you can just call someone to pick you up and take you to where you need to be?

I know people who do that. Car use is down in the young.

[CoolMikey]

Originally Posted by kane

I agree that the owner would likely be responsible for anyone hurt or killed by the driverless car they owned, however, I don't think this is a deal breaker. It will come down to how effective and safe these cars are. If they cause significantly fewer accidents, which would be expected, then I think people will still use them. You would just have to carry insurance just like you do on a regular car.

It's not really that clear who would be responsible. You didn't cause the accident, the computer did. So how could you be responsible?

Someone getting killed by a driverless car would imply a defect in the design = manufacturer should be responsible.

[SpicyM]

Originally Posted by slapass

I know people who do that. Car use is down in the young.

That is problably the situation in huge overcrowded cities. A different story...

Using the underground is the most efficient way in that case. Or a bicycle in case of Amsterdam..

[slapass]

I,love his vision of the future.

[Sarn]

Originally Posted by crucifissio

It's too complicated for mass use...it would have to be indexed in BTC but the transactions would need to be dead simple over phone or card...

In June, tech giant IBM was selected to build a blockchain-based international trading system for seven of the world's biggest banks, including Deutsche Bank, HSBC, KBC, Natixis, Rabobank, Societe Generale and Unicredit.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/31/bloc...ons-study.html

[kane]

Originally Posted by CoolMikey

It's not really that clear who would be responsible. You didn't cause the accident, the computer did. So how could you be responsible?

Someone getting killed by a driverless car would imply a defect in the design = manufacturer should be responsible.

To me, I think it would all come down to what caused the accident. For example, if it was some kind of software error I could see how it could be the manufacturer that was at fault. If it was something that the owner did, it would be them. I'm not sure what the owner might do that could cause the car to hurt someone, but an example might be that they entered GPS information incorrectly causing the car to drive in the wrong place.

[CoolMikey]

Originally Posted by kane

To me, I think it would all come down to what caused the accident. For example, if it was some kind of software error I could see how it could be the manufacturer that was at fault. If it was something that the owner did, it would be them. I'm not sure what the owner might do that could cause the car to hurt someone, but an example might be that they entered GPS information incorrectly causing the car to drive in the wrong place.

Or maybe hack the software so it doesn't obey speed limits. People fairly easily "root" their phones, so there is no reason why they couldn't do the same with cars. Then modify some settings to make it not obey speed limit or accelerate faster, etc. Then if you get pulled over: "I wasn't speeding, the car just kept going 75 in a 55 zone, there was nothing I could do!"

Will be interesting to see how legal implications of it all play out. Like what if driverless car gets caught speeding for some reason, who pays the ticket? What if the car fails to see a pothole, drives into it causing the suspension to get completely fucked, who pays for repairs? What if stop sign gets partially obstructed by a tree branch, car doesn't see it, doesn't stop, causing an accident, who would be responsible? etc

There will probably a hot new field: "AI law", Billions will be at stake defending companies from liability caused by software bugs, so skilled lawyers in that field will make so much money that wallstreet hedge fund guys will be jealous.

[kane]

Originally Posted by CoolMikey

Or maybe hack the software so it doesn't obey speed limits. People fairly easily "root" their phones, so there is no reason why they couldn't do the same with cars. Then modify some settings to make it not obey speed limit or accelerate faster, etc. Then if you get pulled over: "I wasn't speeding, the car just kept going 75 in a 55 zone, there was nothing I could do!"

Will be interesting to see how legal implications of it all play out. Like what if driverless car gets caught speeding for some reason, who pays the ticket? What if the car fails to see a pothole, drives into it causing the suspension to get completely fucked, who pays for repairs? What if stop sign gets partially obstructed by a tree branch, car doesn't see it, doesn't stop, causing an accident, who would be responsible? etc

There will probably a hot new field: "AI law", Billions will be at stake defending companies from liability caused by software bugs, so skilled lawyers in that field will make so much money that wallstreet hedge fund guys will be jealous.

I can absolutely see the birth and explosion of an AI law field. All of the things you point out are great examples of how things could go wrong. I could also see people "hacking" the cars to make them anonymous so people don't know who owns it then they use the car for illegal things. If the car gets stopped/caught, the police may have no way of finding out who owns it. Imagine drug dealers being able to make a fleet of self-driving cars that can't be traced to them.

[mce]

I wonder what workers at horse buggy whip manufacturing plants thought back in the day.......

[rowan]

Originally Posted by CoolMikey

Will be interesting to see how legal implications of it all play out. Like what if driverless car gets caught speeding for some reason, who pays the ticket? What if the car fails to see a pothole, drives into it causing the suspension to get completely fucked, who pays for repairs? What if stop sign gets partially obstructed by a tree branch, car doesn't see it, doesn't stop, causing an accident, who would be responsible? etc

Hmm, brings to mind another scenario: a cluster of cars running the same software get confused and all react in the same way, as a group.

In Melbourne Australia they're currently widening freeways, which requires temporary realignment of some of the lanes. Instead of scraping off the old white lines and painting on temporary markings, as they've done in the past, this time they've simply added yellow lines and a series of signs advising "OBEY YELLOW LINES." So you have a high speed road that has two conflicting sets of lane markings, one of which you're supposed to ignore.

How does a fully autonomous car handle that? Does it detect the conflict and realise it cannot safely resolve the situation, then just give up? Is there some failsafe mode where they beep to alert the occupant, flash their hazards, then pull over to the side of the road and stop? Oops, but Melbourne has abolished emergency lanes in order to widen freeways, so there's nowhere to stop clear of traffic... what do you do when you're rolling on a freeway in a car that has literally panicked, and you have no manual control?

Even worse, what happens if the car doesn't detect any conflict and just continues along, following the older white line alignment? It creates a situation where surrounding vehicles with human drivers (or smarter versions of software) that follow the new alignment will directly conflict with any confused autonomous vehicles following the old. Imagine you're next to one of these when the yellow lines veer a metre left, but the white lines continue straight.

To be fair, this yellow line system is too advanced for many humans to comprehend...

[slapass]

Originally Posted by mce

I wonder what workers at horse buggy whip manufacturing plants thought back in the day.......

In 1898, horse manure was the biggest problem in big cities. By 1912 autos out numbered horses in New York city. By 1917 there were no more horse drawn street cars.

It can change quickly.

[The Porn Nerd]

Throw in chip technology and we will become The Borg.

Man, Star Trek really fucked up a whole generation of kid's minds, didn't it? When's the food replicator and transporter coming? Beam me up Scotty!!

[Struggle4Bucks]

Originally Posted by crucifissio

CEO of Mercedes-Benz predicts the future...prepare vaseline...

Did he mention "Paysites"? anywhere? maybe?

[MatureKing]

My brain not going so far

[The Porn Nerd]

And still no mention of jet packs??

WTF!!!

[TheDynasty]

big wall of text

did anyone read?