REAL ESTATE is ripe for a burst ! - Page 2 - GoFuckYourself.com

SmokeyTheBear · 05-21-2005, 03:13 AM

50 bursts

chadglni · 05-21-2005, 03:16 AM

51% Apr.

KRL · 05-21-2005, 03:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonesy

I rented my house but I had friends who owned homes in LA and the few that did sell after the quake did not lose money.

true but the majority of homes that are sold in instances like that (ie desperate) are very short term and dont lose value in the long run.

that 94 earthquake was a leveler so to speak

i just feel all this talk of a bursting bubble is bullshit.

i do think its going to level off and stop for awhile.
but a decline in price?
nope.

Yeh it was a nasty leveler for many areas of the Valley in LA. After the quake I tried to sell my place and the minute you disclose your property had major earthquake damage, they would make that cringe face and walk.

And you can't blame them cause once you get foundation level damage on a home even fixing it all up, its just never the same. There's all these squeaks and creaks you hear afterwards forever due to the whole frame having been shaken so violenty.

That house finally just sold 10 years later for $2.25 mil which is a steal considering its size and grounds and spectacular view of the entire Valley.

And I spent $5,000 on a geologist before building that cocksucker that analyzed the grounds and gave me a clean report that our property was ground fault free when in fact it wasn't.

Greg B · 05-21-2005, 05:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mockingbich

I don't understand why nobody ever figures in the ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

you've got 4 mexican families crammed into 400-500 thousand dollar homes and the banks are giving them loans with false documents. The population explosion in California is not American. 8 in 10 police traffic stops in Los Angeles are non english speakers

It's not just border jumping mexicans coming in and driving up the prices. There are plenty of wealthy foreigners from Asia and Europe picking up bargains while the dollar is low. For example, there are waiting lists to buy luxury high rise apartments on the Vegas Strip that haven't even been built yet

Unless the government gets control of the borders real estate will continue to boom out of reach for most middle class Americans

The American Civil War Part 2 - coming sooner than you think

Mockingbich, you sure hit the nail on the head. I've never, ever in my life seen such an illegal immigration and immigration exploitation problem like here in California! It's like a cesspool of people who aren't supposed to be here fouling up every operation and dangerously compromising the safety services of honest citizens.

I have people from all over the globe here in Los Angeles and it's epidemic the illegal activities and stronghold organized crime has on them. It's too much to discuss here but rest assured this issue is coming to a head of unforgiveable magnitude.

Greg B · 05-21-2005, 05:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoNgHiTtA

Im going to have to go with people like Greenspan and Buffet. There are pockets of hyper growth (look at the areas posted in the other thread) BUT, other areas are appreciating at a sustainable rate. Sure, there is a bubble in some areas, but others are not in any sort of stock market decline danger.

Sure it's in pockets! Problem is those 'pockets' are the hotbeds of loaning, borrowing, profit and where one investment piled on another. When one area becomes profitable other industries surround it like a fungus.

When those 'pocket's burst it's like termites in wood, like rust in iron.

When the profitable pocket bursts more than just one person feels the impact!

California is the money maker for this country. If it bursts the entire country and world feel the impact.

The average citizen cannot afford a comfortable and secure future and that bodes ill for all.

Greg B · 05-21-2005, 05:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goBigtime

You don't think a major drop in California RE values will take the entire countries value down with it?

goBigtime, right on.

People don't realize these 'pocket bubbles' are like shakey oases. They pop up looking goood. People and businesses surround them and then they burst and everyone is left dry.

California is a money maker but it's being compromised by crime and lackwit legislation.

Greg B · 05-21-2005, 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charly

No one has mentioned the bank rate.

Today it's at 1%, I believe, this is fueling a massive spending spree and personal debt mountain the US not the world can afford.

So if the bank rate goes to 2% the cost of buying a house goes up, the price people can afford to pay, the only thing that governs house prices, drops. The effest are thousands of people paying out loans of say $200K on a property that is worth $150K. Plus people who simply can't afford the repayments and have their home reposessed by the bank.

Everything else is fluctuation, the bank rate and economy is what governs house prices.

Look at the housing crash in the UK for a good example of what happens.

Right on Charly.

That's the anatomy of the economic slavery forthcoming. With the new bankruptcy laws in effect the debt ridden average Joe is now a subject of the ruling nemesis of Shylock's of this cyber society.

The iron chains are gone, but replaced with manacles of 0's and 1's.

Greg B · 05-21-2005, 05:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goBigtime

Thomas Jefferson said it best:
Originally Posted by Thomas Jefferson
I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies . . . If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] . . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered . . . The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

* Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802) ; later published in The Debate Over The Recharter Of The Bank Bill (1809)

Ain't it funny how the men who formed our country knew best for it?

Jefferson again is correct yet he forgot one thing:

Monsters from the ID.

They forgot that with the increase in technologies the primitive urge to steal and pillage and murder are still part of human nature. Given a chance your fellow human under pressure will revert to his or her most base behavior.

People are cowardly until you back them up against a wall and like any other animal they'll fight to the last.

There are far, far too many people whose backs are being pushed to the wall and it's gonna blow soon, my bet is this summer or just around next Christmas. When pockets of bursts of violence occur the security of the Republic becomes compromised and the result is a degredation of our economies.

People come first in business, not the other way around.

sweetcuties · 05-21-2005, 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clickhappy

Alan Greenspan said theres no real bubble, just pocket bubble areas.
So I dont think the shit's going to hit the fan, I just think there will be a little depreciation in California, NYC, Las Vegas and Boston.

Yea, I saw that same piece on CNBC yesterday... just pockets guys, not the entire market

$5 submissions · 05-21-2005, 05:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LegendaryLars

[url]

Oh and tell that to the people in TOKYO hahaha 20 years and teh real estate and stock market are still half or less of what they were. Hahahah the guy waiting for it to just come back up could be waiting a long fucking time.

Same with Hong Kong.

jayeff · 05-21-2005, 06:09 AM

It's odd to see a thread about property prices with no mention of China in it...

The US currently borrows about $2 billion a day to stay in business. 40% of those loans are currently held by China, Taiwan and Japan. China in particular is responsible for keeping mortgage rates in the US low, because doing so has kept the US as a major market for Chinese exports. The fly in the ointment is that China pegged its currency to the US dollar about 20 years ago and as a result its currency is grossly undervalued. China is under a lot of pressure - now even from the US itself - to correct that situation.

It's not a very smart idea to try to second-guess the Chinese. Asians generally think in terms of much longer timescales than westerners and there are several aspects of the Chinese economy which have existed for years despite the gurus claiming they are unsustainable. Yet trillions of dollars have been shifted out of the US economy over the last two or three years - notably funds from Arab countries, Japan and Russia - into China, in anticipation of a revaluation and as a reflection of fading confidence in the US. If/when the Chinese currency is revalued, it will have a major effect on the US economy and on the housing market in particular. Mortgage rates will rise sharply and new mortgages will be much harder to come by. This will have an across-the-board impact, although the effects will be strongest where prices have surged furthest.

Lots of people are writing as if everyone in the housing market is a speculator, but that is true of relatively few people. Most don't even benefit from increasing prices, because their new houses soak up all the "profit" they made on their old homes and then some. Many people take on mortgages they can barely afford when the market is climbing and that will mean a lot of foreclosures if the economy dips. Combine those "bargain" sales with people looking to sell to get out from under as mortgage rates rise, a shortage of mortages, etc., all combining to push prices downwards, and the "adjustments" could be very dramatic indeed.

Cains · 05-21-2005, 06:11 AM

California and Florida always have some kind of bubble to their real estate. Retirees move down and then quickly want to get out as soon as the first earthquake/hurricane/crime happens. Then is the time to buy, wait a few months then sell during peak summer months.

The problem is some 'investors' are way too green and are expecting huge increases within a few months for no real reason other than supply and demand. That is not sustainable with all the development going on and the relatively fragile state of the US economy.

sweetcuties · 05-21-2005, 06:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cains

California and Florida always have some kind of bubble to their real estate. Retirees move down and then quickly want to get out as soon as the first earthquake/hurricane/crime happens. Then is the time to buy, wait a few months then sell during peak summer months.

The problem is some 'investors' are way too green and are expecting huge increases within a few months for no real reason other than supply and demand. That is not sustainable with all the development going on and the relatively fragile state of the US economy.

Agreed... one of my good friends has a FL home and waterlot. I keep telling him, he's overextending himself and it's gonna be interesting when he doesn't get the return expected. The fucker still lives home with dad and he's playing real estate, doesn't even own a house yet... and he's in his early 30's

Greg B · 05-21-2005, 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayeff

It's odd to see a thread about property prices with no mention of China in it...

The US currently borrows about $2 billion a day to stay in business. 40% of those loans are currently held by China, Taiwan and Japan. China in particular is responsible for keeping mortgage rates in the US low, because doing so has kept the US as a major market for Chinese exports. The fly in the ointment is that China pegged its currency to the US dollar about 20 years ago and as a result its currency is grossly undervalued. China is under a lot of pressure - now even from the US itself - to correct that situation.

It's not a very smart idea to try to second-guess the Chinese. Asians generally think in terms of much longer timescales than westerners and there are several aspects of the Chinese economy which have existed for years despite the gurus claiming they are unsustainable. Yet trillions of dollars have been shifted out of the US economy over the last two or three years - notably funds from Arab countries, Japan and Russia - into China, in anticipation of a revaluation and as a reflection of fading confidence in the US. If/when the Chinese currency is revalued, it will have a major effect on the US economy and on the housing market in particular. Mortgage rates will rise sharply and new mortgages will be much harder to come by. This will have an across-the-board impact, although the effects will be strongest where prices have surged furthest.

Lots of people are writing as if everyone in the housing market is a speculator, but that is true of relatively few people. Most don't even benefit from increasing prices, because their new houses soak up all the "profit" they made on their old homes and then some. Many people take on mortgages they can barely afford when the market is climbing and that will mean a lot of foreclosures if the economy dips. Combine those "bargain" sales with people looking to sell to get out from under as mortgage rates rise, a shortage of mortages, etc., all combining to push prices downwards, and the "adjustments" could be very dramatic indeed.

Once again Jayeff proves why he's such a trusted guy. He knows his shit!

China is always referred to as a sleeping giant. " Oh, the Chinese are going to take over the world! " or "Oh, the Chinese market will dominate us all! Woe!".

Yeah that's all well and good except for one thing history has proven:

The mainland Chinese will fuck up a fuck up if it could be fucked up.

The ONLY thing it has is family ties. That's what makes China superior. No matter what government they have or dynasty, they all rise and fall and family is what survives. They should just change the name of the country to 'Kinfolk' and leave it at that. If they did they would be unbeatable. As long as they run some pseudo class system backed by strongarm terrorism in disguise as government they'll continue to be a wobbly power at best.

The top people in their government are just as greedy and vindictive as our own. Check out their bank accounts in Switzerland.

That region of Asia is highly unstable. I wouldn't invest in Asia if you paid me. Why? Because the proliferation of nuclear weapons and waste is far more abundant than the press has been telling you. N. Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan are all one remark away from some disaster of unspeakable magnitude.

When that shit jumps off you can kiss Asia's ass goodbye.

The Muslims who live on mainland China are no-fucking-joke. Their ability to access ex-Soviet weapons and materials is easier than we think.

Asia is a prime target for terrorism. It will be terrorism cloaked in the veneer of religious uprising, but it will be terrorism borne of frustration to the ruling class.

China can't fall, but it can be fucked up so bad that it could take a century to get back to normal.

When that happens, you'll see where the U.S. stands.

Yes, Jayeff is right. China and Asia own an unforgivealble amount of U.S. debt. There is an EVIL market called 'Viaticals'. That's an insurance secondary market that is EVIL. Basically if you're gonna kick the bucket and have a $1,000,000 life insurance policy, you can sell it for like $500,000 CASH and sign it over to the buyer and when you bite the big one, they collect a hefty profit.

Thailand holds the majority of billions of dollars worth of U.S. viaticals and it's kicking their asses.

The U.S. has been pimped to a new level of pimpin' and soon the johns are gonna find out they've been tranny-tricked.

Alex From San Diego · 05-21-2005, 07:00 AM

I just picked up this shithole yesterday for a cool 469k in a neighborhood where homes are 800k+

My home is just up the hill. I'll dump 150k into this dump and make it a 2 story home with killer views of the bay and bingo can turn around and sell it for 750k without a problem. People have been telling me about this bubble since 01. I'm glad I didn't listen to them. You can't buy to just buy. You need to buy right.

xuron · 05-21-2005, 07:52 AM

I am in orlando and boy... talk about idiots buying houses... here is an example.. to get a *new* house built, you can no longer go and buy one, you have to get preapproved to ENTER a LOTTERY to get a LOT. I was a lucky one and went to a lottery and one, well now we found some doctor that has a baby coming and his wife is like crazy to get this lot... so we are preparing to sell the lot (with some complex contracts) to them for like 50k...

Anyways, in the last month, median prices have already gone up over 13k... its way over 210k here in orlando for shitty houses...

What would the experts here on this forum with real estate suggest? The market here in orlando is just way to crazy here... there is bidding wars on shitty houses here that sell in less than 24 hours. I am almost thinking I should put my 2/2 townhome up for sale for like 185k when I bought in last october for 130k just to see if I can get it since people are crazy here.

So should I start putting money into REI's or just go stocks and horde up cash to buy when its a buyers market? Anyone have any good advice?

thanks

jonesy · 05-21-2005, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego

You can't buy to just buy. You need to buy right.

exactly.

jonesy · 05-21-2005, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KRL

That house finally just sold 10 years later for $2.25 mil which is a steal considering its size and grounds and spectacular view of the entire Valley.

whereabouts did you live?

wallst · 05-21-2005, 01:19 PM

i think the bubble exists only in the urban areas you talked about. although, i agree, im waiting to see what happens before i make a long term investment in a house.

Greg B · 05-21-2005, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego

I just picked up this shithole yesterday for a cool 469k in a neighborhood where homes are 800k+

My home is just up the hill. I'll dump 150k into this dump and make it a 2 story home with killer views of the bay and bingo can turn around and sell it for 750k without a problem. People have been telling me about this bubble since 01. I'm glad I didn't listen to them. You can't buy to just buy. You need to buy right.

Well said!!! The smart man is the man willing to invest in a property not just buy it and have it sit there.

My pop taught me when I was 12. He would buy land and design and build his houses. He let me design our first. It was fun and I've never forgotten.

Me, I'll be retiring officially by end of this year and from there I can just work when I want to and have fun doing it. Two things I'll be doing is getting pepped up on my architectural skills and start designing new homes. In the old days it was 'location' and still is to some degree, but with advanced technologies you can 'make' your location

You've got the traditional 'home flipping' which is still a fast way to make great money. Done right you could be a millionaire in a few years. Problem is most people either are too lazy or don't know how to upgrade a property.

I'm from the old school, buy your land and build from scratch. My brother in law does it and he can't get a house 1/3 built before someone wants to buy it for double and triple of if it was finished!

A smart thing to do is take some time at a vocational school or course and take carpentry, wiring, plumbing, painting, landscaping, masonry. They don't take that long to learn the fundamentals and you will make contacts with pros and up and commers who you can always rely on.

Greg B · 05-21-2005, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xuron

I am in orlando and boy... talk about idiots buying houses... here is an example.. to get a *new* house built, you can no longer go and buy one, you have to get preapproved to ENTER a LOTTERY to get a LOT. I was a lucky one and went to a lottery and one, well now we found some doctor that has a baby coming and his wife is like crazy to get this lot... so we are preparing to sell the lot (with some complex contracts) to them for like 50k...

Anyways, in the last month, median prices have already gone up over 13k... its way over 210k here in orlando for shitty houses...

What would the experts here on this forum with real estate suggest? The market here in orlando is just way to crazy here... there is bidding wars on shitty houses here that sell in less than 24 hours. I am almost thinking I should put my 2/2 townhome up for sale for like 185k when I bought in last october for 130k just to see if I can get it since people are crazy here.

So should I start putting money into REI's or just go stocks and horde up cash to buy when its a buyers market? Anyone have any good advice?

thanks

Dude, I have an ARMY of friends and relatives who live in Orlando. I figured after last year's hurricanes and all the fixin' up needed they would be cryin' the blues. Some are because there aren't enough construction crews for repairs. Some left, most stayed. There must be a good reason why people would stay there. Any clues?

Drake · 05-21-2005, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego

I just picked up this shithole yesterday for a cool 469k in a neighborhood where homes are 800k+

My home is just up the hill. I'll dump 150k into this dump and make it a 2 story home with killer views of the bay and bingo can turn around and sell it for 750k without a problem. People have been telling me about this bubble since 01. I'm glad I didn't listen to them. You can't buy to just buy. You need to buy right.

Are you going to do most of the work yourself or with guys that you know in the building industry to make keep the costs of the upgrade as low as possible. I've seen guys do what you're doing... and many times they're builders so they can do the upgrade fast and save on huge labor costs.

latinasojourn · 05-21-2005, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KMR Stitch

Lars you are taking out 1 key factor.

The Baby boomers are coming out of retirement AGE 60-65 ish A lot of them will be moving to warmer southern areas. Florida/Texas/Cali

The market might bust in a few areas but still be strong in the south.

there is another mitigating factor which is not mentioned in the treatise above.

deficit spending and the iraqi war will begin to push inflation in the coming 36 months---i predict big-time inflation.

mortgage interest rates will rise this is true---but folks who got in with a low interest rate (fixed rate) amotized loan might come out OK for the most part, because they will be paying off that loan with inflated dollars.

if you have an ARM you will be mostly fucked.

if want you to get into RE now in the USA you should look for areas with good price to rental ratios---this means buying properties at approx 70-90 times their monthly market rent.

there are many places in USA you can do this if you are willing to relocate---and that's where you can make a killing in the next 5-10 years.

but WTF do i know. i basically retired when i was 35, all from real profits.

Steen2 · 05-21-2005, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mockingbich

I don't understand why nobody ever figures in the ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

you've got 4 mexican families crammed into 400-500 thousand dollar homes and the banks are giving them loans with false documents. The population explosion in California is not American. 8 in 10 police traffic stops in Los Angeles are non english speakers

It's not just border jumping mexicans coming in and driving up the prices. There are plenty of wealthy foreigners from Asia and Europe picking up bargains while the dollar is low. For example, there are waiting lists to buy luxury high rise apartments on the Vegas Strip that haven't even been built yet

Unless the government gets control of the borders real estate will continue to boom out of reach for most middle class Americans

The American Civil War Part 2 - coming sooner than you think

Big difference between "border jumping mexicans" and "wealthy asians".

HighRoller · 05-21-2005, 02:48 PM

I have been a full time real estate investor for 3 years, and I network with up to 1500 investors locally at a time.

No matter if real estate goes up and down doesn't matter to my business.
We get houses 10-20% from market value, from builders, sellers, and investors about to go into foreclosure and bankrupts every day of the week, I can't keep up with the discounted homes, their are so many.

I will tell you that Minnesota is one of the most steady markets their is, and the last 1-2 years has been a buyers market.

You will see a drop in California.

Florida and Nevada will have intermitted set backs
as at certain moments they overbuild.

We are getting connected with the florida pre-construction
where 1100 people a day move there, and you can be assured
that the retirement population will double in the next 5-10 years
that's the largest lifestyle change in the history of the US.
Also the creative class of many top paid professionals couldn't
realistically live anywhere they wanted as their jobs tyed them to
a specific area, with technology, email, fax, phones, teleconferencing etc
we all have flexibility for the creative class allowing them to move to desirable areas. I know people in real estate in Nevada I work with
it's still booming big, yes last half of last year it went form 2000 to 14000 listings almost over night, another 4 months went buy and the demand was big again. I know 1+ year ago they had about 8000 people a month moving down there, I haven't heard the latest, Arizona is where a lot of people seem to be buying the lots, nevada I think it's still on it's way out in the next year ot two, sure it will keep building, but keep in mind much of the builders are from cali, not even looking at the property like it was said.

Florida will be big for a long long time, but certain areas.

As far as people thinking stocks are better than real estate
I can't even get into why that comment is soo far off
"leverage" is the only word that needs to be said
and yes real estate does go down in pocket areas, but has
gone up about 5% in 100+ years, and 6% more recent 30-40 years.

Californian's are so far overleveraged over other states, it will go down in areas. it will take a while to recover, that's just how it works, needs a correction, not a big deal really, if we are all in it for the long term.

Lane · 05-21-2005, 02:51 PM

Whatever happens, it will not drop below what it is today. That's my personal opinion.

It is still profitable to buy property and rent it out. People are still making money even if they didnt have the appreciation. This is even during a time when there is much demand for buying instead of renting. Rent prices are very low, all apartment complexes are making crazy deals to get people in.

If demand moves from buying to renting, the rent prices will increase, and it will still boost the profitability of owning a property, and that's why the values can't drop.

It is leveling off i believe, until the day the mortgage payments cost much more than renting.

Xenophage · 05-21-2005, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chadglni

Interesting thread, thanks Lars. By the way, wanted to ask you if you wanted the domains in my sig. Would do $60 for both. Let me know.

Sur will take em all

Alex From San Diego · 05-21-2005, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike33

Are you going to do most of the work yourself or with guys that you know in the building industry to make keep the costs of the upgrade as low as possible. I've seen guys do what you're doing... and many times they're builders so they can do the upgrade fast and save on huge labor costs.

My background is Architecture. I know enough subs to where I can oversee the project myself.

Mr.Fiction · 05-21-2005, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lane

Whatever happens, it will not drop below what it is today.

That's probably what Tokyo investors thought at one time.

Xenophage · 05-21-2005, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Fiction

That's probably what Tokyo investors thought at one time.

exactly... 20 yeras and teh tokyo market both stock and real estate are still only a fraction of what they were..

jonesy · 05-21-2005, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HighRoller

Florida and Nevada will have intermitted set backs
as at certain moments they overbuild.

We are getting connected with the florida pre-construction
where 1100 people a day move there, and you can be assured
that the retirement population will double in the next 5-10 years
that's the largest lifestyle change in the history of the US.

Florida will be big for a long long time, but certain areas.

As far as people thinking stocks are better than real estate
I can't even get into why that comment is soo far off
"leverage" is the only word that needs to be said
and yes real estate does go down in pocket areas, but has
gone up about 5% in 100+ years, and 6% more recent 30-40 years.

.

high roller

id like to contact you if possible.

Kard63 · 05-21-2005, 09:58 PM

92% in miami in how long? thats crazy.

Doctor Dre · 05-21-2005, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonesy

there will never be a decline in real estate. ever.

what you will have is a leveling off.

do some research on the history of real estate.

it never goes down. ever.

It's never raised that high in so little time ... It will bust .

Xenophage · 05-21-2005, 10:15 PM

never say never ... it will bite you in the ass ..

jonesy · 05-21-2005, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kard63

92% in miami in how long? thats crazy.

actually south florida. this growth has been going on in for the past 18 months and still going strong but i think its going to level off by the fall but its still going to be very very good and will last for sometime. even the least attractive properties have gone up.

my brother in law bought a property a little over a yr ago sold it for twice as much as he paid for last month.

i also think within 3 to 5 yrs your gonna see alot of properties on the market due to people getting into loans/homes/mortages they couldnt afford or actually didnt understand ie baloons and the like. i base this on a few people i know who have been in real estate for yrs.

Xenophage · 05-21-2005, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonesy

actually south florida. this growth has been going on in for the past 18 months and still going strong but i think its going to level off by the fall but its still going to be very very good and will last for sometime. even the least attractive properties have gone up.

my brother in law bought a property a little over a yr ago sold it for twice as much as he paid for last month.

i also think within 3 to 5 yrs your gonna see alot of properties on the market due to people getting into loans/homes/mortages they couldnt afford or actually didnt understand ie baloons and the like. i base this on a few people i know who have been in real estate for yrs.

yes and when everyone tries to get out all at once....

well you can figure out wha happens

mockingbich · 05-21-2005, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg B

Mockingbich, you sure hit the nail on the head. I've never, ever in my life seen such an illegal immigration and immigration exploitation problem like here in California! It's like a cesspool of people who aren't supposed to be here fouling up every operation and dangerously compromising the safety services of honest citizens.

I have people from all over the globe here in Los Angeles and it's epidemic the illegal activities and stronghold organized crime has on them. It's too much to discuss here but rest assured this issue is coming to a head of unforgiveable magnitude.

Interesting how our posts were virtually completely ignored on this thread. Everybody is just talking about the cash their friends are raking in and quoting magazines and articles they've read.

The whole country is sleep walking into an abyss. The equity in their homes makes them think they're rich and they're just thinking of what to buy next

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is what has kept inflation down. Cheap labor has that effect in the short term. But it isn't cheap labor... it's subsidized labor. Each minimum wage mexican picking lettuce and keeping grocery prices low puts his six kids in school costing taxpayers 7 thousand dollars a year EACH CHILD. The American taxpayer is subsidizing the cheap labor being exploiting by large agri-business etc

WAKE UP AMERICA - you're living on borrowed time. While you're bank account is getting fat you're importing your future oppressors. Large populations of foreigners that hate America and like vultures are feasting on a decaying corpse

Lovely picture isn't it? My advice is enjoy the next few years....while you still can

Xenophage · 05-22-2005, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mockingbich

Interesting how our posts were virtually completely ignored on this thread. Everybody is just talking about the cash their friends are raking in and quoting magazines and articles they've read.

The whole country is sleep walking into an abyss. The equity in their homes makes them think they're rich and they're just thinking of what to buy next

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is what has kept inflation down. Cheap labor has that effect in the short term. But it isn't cheap labor... it's subsidized labor. Each minimum wage mexican picking lettuce and keeping grocery prices low puts his six kids in school costing taxpayers 7 thousand dollars a year EACH CHILD. The American taxpayer is subsidizing the cheap labor being exploiting by large agri-business etc

WAKE UP AMERICA - you're living on borrowed time. While you're bank account is getting fat you're importing your future oppressors. Large populations of foreigners that hate America and like vultures are feasting on a decaying corpse

Lovely picture isn't it? My advice is enjoy the next few years....while you still can

yes this is one of the main reasons california is soo fucked.. healthcare for illegals is even more than putting their kids though college...

rambler · 05-22-2005, 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mockingbich

Interesting how our posts were virtually completely ignored on this thread. Everybody is just talking about the cash their friends are raking in and quoting magazines and articles they've read.

The whole country is sleep walking into an abyss. The equity in their homes makes them think they're rich and they're just thinking of what to buy next

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is what has kept inflation down. Cheap labor has that effect in the short term. But it isn't cheap labor... it's subsidized labor. Each minimum wage mexican picking lettuce and keeping grocery prices low puts his six kids in school costing taxpayers 7 thousand dollars a year EACH CHILD. The American taxpayer is subsidizing the cheap labor being exploiting by large agri-business etc

WAKE UP AMERICA - you're living on borrowed time. While you're bank account is getting fat you're importing your future oppressors. Large populations of foreigners that hate America and like vultures are feasting on a decaying corpse

Lovely picture isn't it? My advice is enjoy the next few years....while you still can

badmunchkin · 05-22-2005, 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Veterans Day

small pockets of devaluation, such as shithole california. Overall the best investment one can make. Nothing dramatic

hey man, how's that e-book coming?

grumpy · 05-22-2005, 12:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amputate Your Head

Location location location..... and I'm sittin' on the mutha fuckin' beach.

Your bubble may burst.... but mines still shining.

you are renting. You have to own the house.

mockingbich · 05-22-2005, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rambler

Keep laughing - I hear the Chinese are already calling Vancouver a "colony"

ADL Colin · 05-22-2005, 01:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LegendaryLars

Man oh man the frenzy is at its peak read this shit and tell me its not.

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/inves...061371,00.html

Lars,

I thought the exact same thing when I saw the cover of Fortune.

Biggy2 · 05-22-2005, 01:55 AM

you cannot find a piece of shit 1 BR apt in NYC for under 2k/month to rent. its unreal.

jonesy · 05-22-2005, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mockingbich

Interesting how our posts were virtually completely ignored on this thread. Everybody is just talking about the cash their friends are raking in and quoting magazines and articles they've read.

The whole country is sleep walking into an abyss. The equity in their homes makes them think they're rich and they're just thinking of what to buy next

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is what has kept inflation down. Cheap labor has that effect in the short term. But it isn't cheap labor... it's subsidized labor. Each minimum wage mexican picking lettuce and keeping grocery prices low puts his six kids in school costing taxpayers 7 thousand dollars a year EACH CHILD. The American taxpayer is subsidizing the cheap labor being exploiting by large agri-business etc

WAKE UP AMERICA - you're living on borrowed time. While you're bank account is getting fat you're importing your future oppressors. Large populations of foreigners that hate America and like vultures are feasting on a decaying corpse

Lovely picture isn't it? My advice is enjoy the next few years....while you still can

RUN FOR THE HILLS!

THE IMMIGRANTS ARE GOING TO RUIN THE USA!

same bullshit was said at the turn of the century, 20's, 30's, 40's when every nationality immigrated to this country.

my advice to to get an education.

ADL Colin · 05-22-2005, 01:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charly

No one has mentioned the bank rate.

Today it's at 1%, I believe, this is fueling a massive spending spree and personal debt mountain the US not the world can afford.

So if the bank rate goes to 2% the cost of buying a house goes up, the price people can afford to pay, the only thing that governs house prices, drops. The effest are thousands of people paying out loans of say $200K on a property that is worth $150K. Plus people who simply can't afford the repayments and have their home reposessed by the bank.

Everything else is fluctuation, the bank rate and economy is what governs house prices.

Look at the housing crash in the UK for a good example of what happens.

Fed Funds rate is 3%. It was 1% a year ago.

jonesy · 05-22-2005, 01:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LegendaryLars

yes and when everyone tries to get out all at once....

well you can figure out wha happens

yup.

opportunity.

ADL Colin · 05-22-2005, 02:30 AM

As far as history, there have been some REAL serious real estate busts both on the local level and national level (Japan). This is not just a US bubble, it is a world-wide bubble and not just in real-estate prices but nearly all assets. Check out commodity prices the past few months.

The inflation adjusted nation-wide average rise in housing prices the past year has been the steepest rise in history. When you can say "steepest rise in history" you can usually be assured the bust is next. When? no one knows. There can be a real disconnect from fundamentals when fortunes are being made. Consider all the people who in 1996 forecasted the stock market would burst. Greenspan used the phrase "irrational exuberance" in 1996. Four years later the market was still rising and the new catch-phrase was "new economy"; a concept that recurringly appears in such telling years as 1929, 1971 and 2000. Then the markets tanked. The Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value in a short period.

What always happens in the manias is that people claim the fundamentals have changed and support the rise. In 2000, increases in productivity would push the Dow Jones to 36,000.

You can still buy the book.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...books&n=507846
Published September, 1999. What timing!

Now people think there are fundamental reasons why people in Boston and Miami should be getting rich by buying property in one year and selling in the next. Bulls are a great ride for people who don't get on at the top. Those who do get bucked.

ADL Colin · 05-22-2005, 02:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonesy

yup.

opportunity.

Absolutely

Nautilus · 05-22-2005, 02:55 AM

Quote:

You can still buy the book.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...=books&n=507846
Published September, 1999. What timing!

Hahaha, good one, thanks for the link!

"One example they cite is Exxon, which you could have bought in 1977 for about $6 when it was paying a dividend of 37 cents, or about 6 percent a share. Twenty years later, the dividend had grown to $1.63 or 27 percent of your initial $6 investment. Compare two $1,000 investments over 20 years in Exxon and 7.5 percent Treasury bonds: payments from the T-bonds would amount to $1,500; the Exxon dividends would add up to $3,585--not to mention that shares in Exxon went from $6 to $61 during that same period. To get to their target of 36,000, the authors project dividend growth of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow and apply a valuation measure that they call PRP ("perfectly reasonable price"). Many will dismiss this kind of thinking as wishful, but they're probably the same Chicken Littles who have been calling the market overpriced for years (think back to January 1993, when the Dow was hovering around 3,300)."

05-21-2005, 03:13 AM	#51
SmokeyTheBear ►SouthOfHeaven Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: PlanetEarth MyBoardRank: GerbilMaster My-Penis-Size: extralarge MyWeapon: Computer Posts: 28,609	50 bursts __________________ hatisblack at yahoo.com

05-21-2005, 03:16 AM	#52
chadglni Confirmed User Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: PEI, Canada Posts: 6,924	51% Apr. __________________ Sign up here - Dating Site affiliate program

05-21-2005, 07:00 AM	#65
Alex From San Diego Confirmed User Join Date: May 2001 Location: San Diego Posts: 1,642	I just picked up this shithole yesterday for a cool 469k in a neighborhood where homes are 800k+ My home is just up the hill. I'll dump 150k into this dump and make it a 2 story home with killer views of the bay and bingo can turn around and sell it for 750k without a problem. People have been telling me about this bubble since 01. I'm glad I didn't listen to them. You can't buy to just buy. You need to buy right. __________________ We are what we repeatedly do.-Aristotle

05-21-2005, 07:52 AM	#66
xuron Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 346	orlando market I am in orlando and boy... talk about idiots buying houses... here is an example.. to get a new house built, you can no longer go and buy one, you have to get preapproved to ENTER a LOTTERY to get a LOT. I was a lucky one and went to a lottery and one, well now we found some doctor that has a baby coming and his wife is like crazy to get this lot... so we are preparing to sell the lot (with some complex contracts) to them for like 50k... Anyways, in the last month, median prices have already gone up over 13k... its way over 210k here in orlando for shitty houses... What would the experts here on this forum with real estate suggest? The market here in orlando is just way to crazy here... there is bidding wars on shitty houses here that sell in less than 24 hours. I am almost thinking I should put my 2/2 townhome up for sale for like 185k when I bought in last october for 130k just to see if I can get it since people are crazy here. So should I start putting money into REI's or just go stocks and horde up cash to buy when its a buyers market? Anyone have any good advice? thanks

05-21-2005, 02:51 PM	#76
Lane Will code for food... Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Buckeye, AZ Posts: 8,496	Whatever happens, it will not drop below what it is today. That's my personal opinion. It is still profitable to buy property and rent it out. People are still making money even if they didnt have the appreciation. This is even during a time when there is much demand for buying instead of renting. Rent prices are very low, all apartment complexes are making crazy deals to get people in. If demand moves from buying to renting, the rent prices will increase, and it will still boost the profitability of owning a property, and that's why the values can't drop. It is leveling off i believe, until the day the mortgage payments cost much more than renting. __________________

05-21-2005, 06:09 AM	#61
jayeff Confirmed User Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 2,944	It's odd to see a thread about property prices with no mention of China in it... The US currently borrows about $2 billion a day to stay in business. 40% of those loans are currently held by China, Taiwan and Japan. China in particular is responsible for keeping mortgage rates in the US low, because doing so has kept the US as a major market for Chinese exports. The fly in the ointment is that China pegged its currency to the US dollar about 20 years ago and as a result its currency is grossly undervalued. China is under a lot of pressure - now even from the US itself - to correct that situation. It's not a very smart idea to try to second-guess the Chinese. Asians generally think in terms of much longer timescales than westerners and there are several aspects of the Chinese economy which have existed for years despite the gurus claiming they are unsustainable. Yet trillions of dollars have been shifted out of the US economy over the last two or three years - notably funds from Arab countries, Japan and Russia - into China, in anticipation of a revaluation and as a reflection of fading confidence in the US. If/when the Chinese currency is revalued, it will have a major effect on the US economy and on the housing market in particular. Mortgage rates will rise sharply and new mortgages will be much harder to come by. This will have an across-the-board impact, although the effects will be strongest where prices have surged furthest. Lots of people are writing as if everyone in the housing market is a speculator, but that is true of relatively few people. Most don't even benefit from increasing prices, because their new houses soak up all the "profit" they made on their old homes and then some. Many people take on mortgages they can barely afford when the market is climbing and that will mean a lot of foreclosures if the economy dips. Combine those "bargain" sales with people looking to sell to get out from under as mortgage rates rise, a shortage of mortages, etc., all combining to push prices downwards, and the "adjustments" could be very dramatic indeed.

05-21-2005, 06:11 AM	#62
Cains Confirmed User Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 407	California and Florida always have some kind of bubble to their real estate. Retirees move down and then quickly want to get out as soon as the first earthquake/hurricane/crime happens. Then is the time to buy, wait a few months then sell during peak summer months. The problem is some 'investors' are way too green and are expecting huge increases within a few months for no real reason other than supply and demand. That is not sustainable with all the development going on and the relatively fragile state of the US economy.

05-21-2005, 01:19 PM	#69
wallst Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: South East Posts: 1,621	i think the bubble exists only in the urban areas you talked about. although, i agree, im waiting to see what happens before i make a long term investment in a house.

05-21-2005, 02:48 PM	#75
HighRoller Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: MN Posts: 1,037	I have been a full time real estate investor for 3 years, and I network with up to 1500 investors locally at a time. No matter if real estate goes up and down doesn't matter to my business. We get houses 10-20% from market value, from builders, sellers, and investors about to go into foreclosure and bankrupts every day of the week, I can't keep up with the discounted homes, their are so many. I will tell you that Minnesota is one of the most steady markets their is, and the last 1-2 years has been a buyers market. You will see a drop in California. Florida and Nevada will have intermitted set backs as at certain moments they overbuild. We are getting connected with the florida pre-construction where 1100 people a day move there, and you can be assured that the retirement population will double in the next 5-10 years that's the largest lifestyle change in the history of the US. Also the creative class of many top paid professionals couldn't realistically live anywhere they wanted as their jobs tyed them to a specific area, with technology, email, fax, phones, teleconferencing etc we all have flexibility for the creative class allowing them to move to desirable areas. I know people in real estate in Nevada I work with it's still booming big, yes last half of last year it went form 2000 to 14000 listings almost over night, another 4 months went buy and the demand was big again. I know 1+ year ago they had about 8000 people a month moving down there, I haven't heard the latest, Arizona is where a lot of people seem to be buying the lots, nevada I think it's still on it's way out in the next year ot two, sure it will keep building, but keep in mind much of the builders are from cali, not even looking at the property like it was said. Florida will be big for a long long time, but certain areas. As far as people thinking stocks are better than real estate I can't even get into why that comment is soo far off "leverage" is the only word that needs to be said and yes real estate does go down in pocket areas, but has gone up about 5% in 100+ years, and 6% more recent 30-40 years. Californian's are so far overleveraged over other states, it will go down in areas. it will take a while to recover, that's just how it works, needs a correction, not a big deal really, if we are all in it for the long term.

05-21-2005, 09:58 PM	#82
Kard63 Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: 237 619 975 Posts: 8,944	92% in miami in how long? thats crazy. __________________

05-21-2005, 10:15 PM	#84
Xenophage Registered User Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 12,122	never say never ... it will bite you in the ass ..

05-22-2005, 01:55 AM	#94
Biggy2 Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 1,821	you cannot find a piece of shit 1 BR apt in NYC for under 2k/month to rent. its unreal.

05-22-2005, 02:30 AM	#98
ADL Colin Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Tube Titans, USA Posts: 11,929	As far as history, there have been some REAL serious real estate busts both on the local level and national level (Japan). This is not just a US bubble, it is a world-wide bubble and not just in real-estate prices but nearly all assets. Check out commodity prices the past few months. The inflation adjusted nation-wide average rise in housing prices the past year has been the steepest rise in history. When you can say "steepest rise in history" you can usually be assured the bust is next. When? no one knows. There can be a real disconnect from fundamentals when fortunes are being made. Consider all the people who in 1996 forecasted the stock market would burst. Greenspan used the phrase "irrational exuberance" in 1996. Four years later the market was still rising and the new catch-phrase was "new economy"; a concept that recurringly appears in such telling years as 1929, 1971 and 2000. Then the markets tanked. The Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value in a short period. What always happens in the manias is that people claim the fundamentals have changed and support the rise. In 2000, increases in productivity would push the Dow Jones to 36,000. You can still buy the book. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...books&n=507846 Published September, 1999. What timing! Now people think there are fundamental reasons why people in Boston and Miami should be getting rich by buying property in one year and selling in the next. Bulls are a great ride for people who don't get on at the top. Those who do get bucked. __________________ Adult Date Link - $50 PPS starting NOW! -- good and JUICY! skype = "adultdatelink"