REAL ESTATE is ripe for a burst ! - Page 5 - GoFuckYourself.com

Greg B · 11-03-2005, 12:04 AM

Lots can change. One thing for the better would be since so many Americans leave the U.S. to live elsewhere like Thailand and Belize etc. the foreign countries can see the light of adding better security to better accomodate Americans who want to enjoy their American lifestyle but still are solvent enough to build up the foreign economies. American lifestyle is the key here. The smart guys are gonna see that they could attract millions and millions of Americans to their shores if they accomodated us. Low prices but quality service. With Satellite tv and advanced communication systems all that'd be left is commercial products like YooHoo and Marlboror cigs and you'ld have customers up the yin yang.

Although it costs $70k a year to live somewhat comfy here in the states, that same $70k is non taxable in foreign countries but is like having $500k here.

Security means money. Not the other way around. If foreign countries made it happy for Americans to live there real estate here would fall off like a rock.

Greg B · 11-29-2005, 04:36 PM

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/11/29/D8E6C6M83.html

New home sales up 13% in October! Looks like it's turning into a buyer's market.

slapass · 11-29-2005, 04:48 PM

If you had shorted the housing stocks when he posted this you would have hauled in about 33% by now.

Xenophage · 01-15-2006, 06:56 PM

I am certain we have seen the Peak !

ADL Colin · 11-06-2007, 04:26 AM

bump bump

tiger · 11-06-2007, 04:40 AM

LOL nice bump.

sweetcuties · 11-06-2007, 05:06 AM

Wow, this is an old thread...

Remember this... NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!!! If you want to build wealth, just have at least 1 rental (min) and you'll do well

AGS-17 · 11-06-2007, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LegendaryLars

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/21/business/21fed.html

our buddy alan

thx the sites !

RP Fade · 11-06-2007, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LegendaryLars

good ? I have no idea.. thats what is so irritating and what fuels the mad rush in.. if it does not happen for another 2 years and prices go up another 30% then even if it drops 10 -20 % you might kick yourslf for not doing it now.. if its for a primary living I would just do it now... if its for speculation I would hold off.

but thats just me

hehe...old thread but we did wait and just got something at a good price

AGS-17 · 11-07-2007, 03:20 AM

Lars you are taking out 1 key factor.

ADL Colin · 04-06-2008, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

I'll bump it.

Almost 3 years now.

Kard63 · 04-06-2008, 07:05 PM

Lars is a smart fellow. How much longer should I wait to buy Lars? I live in the midwest where shit never did double in the first place so "people" think it will turn around faster here.

NoComments · 04-06-2008, 07:12 PM

Lars was right on the money!

There is a reason some folks sell their businesses for 500 mils while most do NOT!
;)

marcop · 04-06-2008, 07:30 PM

The guy who bought the house next door in May 2005 for $1.35M is probably losing $5k-$10k a month in equity.

The best investment advice you'll ever receive: Buy Low, Sell High.

NaughtyRob · 04-06-2008, 11:14 PM

He was right on, the Vegas market is shit right now. Definitely a buyers market.

Kard63 · 04-06-2008, 11:23 PM

Looks like I will not be getting an answer on my "when should I buy" question. He hasnt posted here in 7.5 months.

slapass · 04-07-2008, 06:15 AM

Glad to see I did not post anything stupid in this thread. I hate when I see old threads and I am "nope, now is the time to buy!" or something dumb like that.

Fap · 04-07-2008, 07:05 AM

whats with people bumping these 3yr old threads?

ADL Colin · 04-07-2008, 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by banthis

whats with people bumping these 3yr old threads?

Post #141. I said I'd bump this thread in 3 years. Just for kicks, want me to bump it again in 2011?

Snake Doctor · 02-10-2009, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KMR Stitch

Lars you are taking out 1 key factor.

The Baby boomers are coming out of retirement AGE 60-65 ish A lot of them will be moving to warmer southern areas. Florida/Texas/Cali

The market might bust in a few areas but still be strong in the south.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amputate Your Head

Location location location..... and I'm sittin' on the mutha fuckin' beach.

Your bubble may burst.... but mines still shining.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Veterans Day

small pockets of devaluation, such as shithole california. Overall the best investment one can make. Nothing dramatic

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonesy

there will never be a decline in real estate. ever.

Quote:

Originally Posted by clickhappy

Alan Greenspan said theres no real bubble, just pocket bubble areas.
So I dont think the shit's going to hit the fan, I just think there will be a little depreciation in California, NYC, Las Vegas and Boston.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoNgHiTtA

Im going to have to go with people like Greenspan and Buffet. There are pockets of hyper growth (look at the areas posted in the other thread) BUT, other areas are appreciating at a sustainable rate. Sure, there is a bubble in some areas, but others are not in any sort of stock market decline danger.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonesy

i do think its going to level off and stop for awhile.
but a decline in price?
nope.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego

People have been telling me about this bubble since 01. I'm glad I didn't listen to them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HighRoller

I have been a full time real estate investor for 3 years
No matter if real estate goes up and down doesn't matter to my business.....

Florida and Nevada will have intermitted set backs
as at certain moments they overbuild...

Florida will be big for a long long time.....

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lane

Whatever happens, it will not drop below what it is today

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSaint

Like any market, the bubble popping, if indeed it does, will take out some of the excess in the housing market. People who were truly stupid (bidding against each other above the asking price, buying houses unseen, etc.) could get hurt.

But most single family real estate sold in the U.S is owner occupied.

I don't think its possible to come up with a forecast where Florida stops growing. Its just not possible to manufacture area to live with Florida's most valuable commodity - sunshine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradpitt

I made millions and will continue to. There will not be a crash but taking insanly huge profits may stop.. fine with me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NY_TIM

I just bought 2 houses in Vegas in the last 2 months. I am renting them out right now. When I can take money out of the first one I will buy a 3rd and so on and so on

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUCKuPAYme

even if it dropped that much you still made a shit load my house goes up 100k year About 35% in tampa on the water. btw always buy on the water

I think real estate is a safe bet if you cant sell when the market drops their will be plenty of renters

Quote:

Originally Posted by will76

Didn't long term interest rates just go down ;)
Sorry guys no burst soon.
.

Ahhhh, I love history.

ADL Colin · 02-10-2009, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheJimmy

that dude that wrote Rich Dad's real estate book said it well...

do the opposite of what the herd is doing, when everyone is buying homes, DON'T! (buy stocks instead)

when everyone is buying stocks, DON'T... (invest in RE)

...overly simplistic, but nonetheless sound advice for the most part, it's pretty clear that when stocks dump people get nervous and run to the 'solid' land/housing purchases/investments...and vice versa...

following trends can work for a while, but you def have to watch for the teeder/todder moving...

.

Best advice in this thread was this. Buffett has a similar quote which we have on our office walls as a daily reminder.

"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"

Kard63 · 02-10-2009, 09:47 AM

What do you know, I always thought Will76 was an overly confident fool and he was wrong in this thread. Good times.

Snake Doctor · 02-10-2009, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

Best advice in this thread was this. Buffett has a similar quote which we have on our office walls as a daily reminder.

"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"

The problem with this was when everyone was buying real estate, it was also a bad time to buy stocks.

ADL Colin · 02-10-2009, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snake Doctor

The problem with this was when everyone was buying real estate, it was also a bad time to buy stocks.

Why would you say that? You still had 30% of gains ahead of you from the date of this thread. Obviously you would have stayed in stocks until everyone got greedy - which was precisely and obviously on October 8th,2007. ;-)

But seriously, I think it's a great rule to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. It's just a generality. It doesn't tell you when others are greedy or fearful or how to measure it but I live by it in the following way. When the market goes down I get excited and buy. When it goes down further i get more excited and buy. When it gets absolutely destroyed I am the happiest person in the world. Deals! When the market starts to rise I get sad that the bargains are starting to disappear. When it rises further I miss the good old days of cheap stocks. When everyone everywhere is talking about stocks I get interested in something else entirely.

Elli · 02-10-2009, 10:51 AM

hah! Great find!

Brujah · 02-10-2009, 10:56 AM

Someone post some real stats, instead of vaguaries. Show us homes in Tampa, Florida for example as mentioned in this thread from 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Let's see how they have fluctuated in value.

gornyhuy · 02-10-2009, 10:57 AM

Best Bump Ever. Awesome.... hindsight is 20/20.

polle54 · 02-10-2009, 11:13 AM

This is definately amazing to read, great great bump

ADL Colin · 02-10-2009, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brujah

Someone post some real stats, instead of vaguaries. Show us homes in Tampa, Florida for example as mentioned in this thread from 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Let's see how they have fluctuated in value.

Tampa, FL. Median home price.

9/2005 $287500
9/2006 $259999
9/2007 $235000
9/2008 $190000
Current $179000

Ouuuuucccchhhhhh!

Inventory in that same time went from 5913 homes to 41,808 homes!

Source: http://www.housingtracker.net/old_ho...Florida/Tampa/

Brujah · 02-10-2009, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

Tampa, FL. Median home price.

9/2005 $287500
9/2006 $259999
9/2007 $235000
9/2008 $190000
Current $179000

Ouuuuucccchhhhhh!

Inventory in that same time went from 5913 homes to 41,808 homes!

Source: http://www.housingtracker.net/old_ho...Florida/Tampa/

Thanks Colin!

Do you think they should have sold in 2005 or 2006? Is now the time to buy and flip when it gets back up to 2005 prices? How long do you think it'll take to recover back to 2005 prices?

ADL Colin · 02-10-2009, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brujah

Thanks Colin!

Do you think they should have sold in 2005 or 2006? Is now the time to buy and flip when it gets back up to 2005 prices? How long do you think it'll take to recover back to 2005 prices?

To get back to 2005 prices for the Tampa area from here at 5% per year would take a decade and the long term appreciation of the housing market is roughly at the rate of inflation - which historically has been less than that.

I'd much rather be in the stock market. I think this is a historic opportunity in the stock market and personally I think stocks are a lot easier to value. There is going to be all kinds of unpredictable real estate and banking legislation and that just adds another element of risk to real estate from my POV.

Bill Gross said earlier today that he still thinks long term rates will get down to 4.5%. If I were really a real estate bug I'd wait for the lower rates and then wait for a few months of uptick. Bernard Baruch said something like "you take the first 10% and the last 10% and I'll take everything in the middle". That seems like a good rule here. he also said "Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars. "

StuartD · 02-10-2009, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snake Doctor

Ahhhh, I love history.

That's awesome

Brujah · 02-10-2009, 11:56 AM

The market's pretty dismal still, people thought they hit bottom several months ago or more and were picking up amazing bargains. Wiping out a lot of value in everyone's portfolio. When do you think it'll start picking up?

ADL Colin · 02-11-2009, 05:05 AM

While not meaning to minimize the role that legislative and federal reserve actions had on the housing bubble this thread shows that beliefs also played a role in the bubble. The belief that "real estate prices always go up" was widespread and yet obviously false. Without this belief I don't think we would have had a bubble. There have been low interest rates before without a bubble. And there have been housing bubbles without there even being a FED. There was a bubble in land near railroads in the midwest (Kansas, Oklahoma, etc) that ended up in a disastrous bust.

A bubble requires not only the right legal environment but also the beliefs and actions of men.

ADL Colin · 02-11-2009, 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brujah

The market's pretty dismal still, people thought they hit bottom several months ago or more and were picking up amazing bargains. Wiping out a lot of value in everyone's portfolio. When do you think it'll start picking up?

There was a boom in pending orders in January. Up more than 15% in states. If it translates into that large of an increase in sales in February and March we could see the bottom in some Southern and Western states before June with a bottom probably coming later in the Northeast and Midwest. The CEO of Wells Fargo - who have 1/8 of all mortgages in the US - said recently that he sees evidence that a bottom is forming. Not that we are "at bottom" but that "a bottom is forming". One thing he pointed out is that they are now getting multiple orders per house. Prices in the closest market to me; orlando, were actually higher in December than November - though this has happened occasionally during the crisis. Bill Gross said yesterday that he thinks rates will still go down to 4.5%. That is a huge decrease in the mortgage payment one gets and changes the calculus of home buying substantially.

slapass · 03-25-2009, 10:01 AM

How timely was this???

11-06-2007, 04:26 AM	#205
ADL Colin Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Tube Titans, USA Posts: 11,929	bump bump __________________ Adult Date Link - $50 PPS starting NOW! -- good and JUICY! skype = "adultdatelink"

11-06-2007, 04:40 AM	#206
tiger Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 6,986	LOL nice bump. __________________

11-06-2007, 05:06 AM	#207
sweetcuties Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Somewhere Posts: 5,859	Wow, this is an old thread... Remember this... NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!!! If you want to build wealth, just have at least 1 rental (min) and you'll do well __________________

04-06-2008, 07:05 PM	#212
Kard63 Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: 237 619 975 Posts: 8,944	Lars is a smart fellow. How much longer should I wait to buy Lars? I live in the midwest where shit never did double in the first place so "people" think it will turn around faster here. __________________

04-06-2008, 07:12 PM	#213
NoComments Confirmed User Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 4,957	Lars was right on the money! There is a reason some folks sell their businesses for 500 mils while most do NOT! ;) __________________ ************************************* Give me the offer I can't refuse**

11-03-2005, 12:04 AM	#201
Greg B So Fucking Banned Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: EARTH (for the time being) Posts: 7,014	Lots can change. One thing for the better would be since so many Americans leave the U.S. to live elsewhere like Thailand and Belize etc. the foreign countries can see the light of adding better security to better accomodate Americans who want to enjoy their American lifestyle but still are solvent enough to build up the foreign economies. American lifestyle is the key here. The smart guys are gonna see that they could attract millions and millions of Americans to their shores if they accomodated us. Low prices but quality service. With Satellite tv and advanced communication systems all that'd be left is commercial products like YooHoo and Marlboror cigs and you'ld have customers up the yin yang. Although it costs $70k a year to live somewhat comfy here in the states, that same $70k is non taxable in foreign countries but is like having $500k here. Security means money. Not the other way around. If foreign countries made it happy for Americans to live there real estate here would fall off like a rock.

11-29-2005, 04:36 PM	#202
Greg B So Fucking Banned Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: EARTH (for the time being) Posts: 7,014	http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/11/29/D8E6C6M83.html New home sales up 13% in October! Looks like it's turning into a buyer's market.

11-29-2005, 04:48 PM	#203
slapass Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Earth Posts: 14,622	If you had shorted the housing stocks when he posted this you would have hauled in about 33% by now.

01-15-2006, 06:56 PM	#204
Xenophage Registered User Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 12,122	I am certain we have seen the Peak !

11-07-2007, 03:20 AM	#210
AGS-17 Confirmed User Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,402	Lars you are taking out 1 key factor.

04-06-2008, 07:30 PM	#214
marcop Content Producer Industry Role: Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 4,143	The guy who bought the house next door in May 2005 for $1.35M is probably losing $5k-$10k a month in equity. The best investment advice you'll ever receive: Buy Low, Sell High.

04-06-2008, 11:14 PM	#215
NaughtyRob Two fresh affiliate progs Industry Role: Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Inside teen pussy Posts: 29,602	He was right on, the Vegas market is shit right now. Definitely a buyers market. __________________ [email protected] Skype: 17026955414 Vacares Web Hosting - Protect Your Ass with Included Daily Backups

04-06-2008, 11:23 PM	#216
Kard63 Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: 237 619 975 Posts: 8,944	Looks like I will not be getting an answer on my "when should I buy" question. He hasnt posted here in 7.5 months. __________________

04-07-2008, 06:15 AM	#217
slapass Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Earth Posts: 14,622	Glad to see I did not post anything stupid in this thread. I hate when I see old threads and I am "nope, now is the time to buy!" or something dumb like that.

04-07-2008, 07:05 AM	#218
Fap Just Du It Industry Role: Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 12,094	whats with people bumping these 3yr old threads?

02-10-2009, 09:47 AM	#222
Kard63 Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: 237 619 975 Posts: 8,944	What do you know, I always thought Will76 was an overly confident fool and he was wrong in this thread. Good times. __________________

02-10-2009, 10:51 AM	#225
Elli Reach for those stars! Industry Role: Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Vancouver, BC Posts: 17,991	hah! Great find! __________________ Make More Money with Cams and Dating at FFN.com! email: [email protected]

02-10-2009, 10:56 AM	#226
Brujah Beer Money Baron Industry Role: Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: brujah / gmail Posts: 22,157	Someone post some real stats, instead of vaguaries. Show us homes in Tampa, Florida for example as mentioned in this thread from 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Let's see how they have fluctuated in value. __________________ Free Premium Domain Lists and Tools at Clickmojo.com For Sale: Obscenity.com

02-10-2009, 10:57 AM	#227
gornyhuy Chafed. Join Date: May 2002 Location: Face Down in Pussy Posts: 18,041	Best Bump Ever. Awesome.... hindsight is 20/20. __________________ icq:159548293

02-10-2009, 11:13 AM	#228
polle54 Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: The Beach Posts: 4,626	This is definately amazing to read, great great bump __________________ ICQ# 143561781

02-10-2009, 11:56 AM	#233
Brujah Beer Money Baron Industry Role: Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: brujah / gmail Posts: 22,157	The market's pretty dismal still, people thought they hit bottom several months ago or more and were picking up amazing bargains. Wiping out a lot of value in everyone's portfolio. When do you think it'll start picking up? __________________ Free Premium Domain Lists and Tools at Clickmojo.com For Sale: Obscenity.com

02-11-2009, 05:05 AM	#234
ADL Colin Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Tube Titans, USA Posts: 11,929	While not meaning to minimize the role that legislative and federal reserve actions had on the housing bubble this thread shows that beliefs also played a role in the bubble. The belief that "real estate prices always go up" was widespread and yet obviously false. Without this belief I don't think we would have had a bubble. There have been low interest rates before without a bubble. And there have been housing bubbles without there even being a FED. There was a bubble in land near railroads in the midwest (Kansas, Oklahoma, etc) that ended up in a disastrous bust. A bubble requires not only the right legal environment but also the beliefs and actions of men. __________________ Adult Date Link - $50 PPS starting NOW! -- good and JUICY! skype = "adultdatelink"

03-25-2009, 10:01 AM	#236
slapass Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Earth Posts: 14,622	How timely was this???