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Old 04-15-2009, 05:20 PM   #51
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50 doomed tubes
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Old 04-15-2009, 09:10 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Paul Markham View Post
YouTube Is Doomed



Comments please.

I think they will run it for ever as a tax loss. But it proves traffic is only the first step, you have to sell the traffic something to make a profit.
the guy at plentyofish has already been over this with his biz model...
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Old 04-15-2009, 09:50 PM   #53
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Data on people looking at videos on Youtube. Manner from heaven.
"Manner" from heaven, lol? You "should of" known better, Paul!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manna
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Old 04-15-2009, 10:32 PM   #54
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I guess I'm the only one who thinks Google is sort of a phony. They had one success with one product. Everything else they've done has either been a buyout, or they just copied another service. In fact, adwords was just a copy of Overture.

If they were such a great company they would be innovating more, but honestly, I can't think of one innovation they've had.

Don't get me wrong, they've made a shitload of money and deserve every penny of it and even the janitor over there is probably smarter than me. But I think they are a one hit wonder.
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Old 04-15-2009, 10:44 PM   #55
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I had actually read an article awhile ago they were thinking about closing it because its a huge cash hog. Also its hard to get the ad dollars when most of the youtube viewing audience probably isnt old enough to have a credit card. If the viacom suit hits them hard,it will interesting to see what happens.
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Old 04-15-2009, 10:45 PM   #56
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I guess I'm the only one who thinks Google is sort of a phony. They had one success with one product. Everything else they've done has either been a buyout, or they just copied another service. In fact, adwords was just a copy of Overture.

If they were such a great company they would be innovating more, but honestly, I can't think of one innovation they've had.

Don't get me wrong, they've made a shitload of money and deserve every penny of it and even the janitor over there is probably smarter than me. But I think they are a one hit wonder.
They are like an online version of microsoft.
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Old 04-15-2009, 11:13 PM   #57
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As all the fiber increases take place the Internet will be far more about video and rich media than text.

If you were a company making great money from text based advertising and also owned the number one video property, you would close it because today its a bit of a liability?

I guess there wil be some kind of vonage equivalent for TV, and all kinds of new stuff in the next few years. I'd certainly prefer hedge my bets than bank everything on adsense/adwords.
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Old 04-16-2009, 01:36 AM   #58
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I don't have an expert opinion on this but the idea that Google is too diabolically clever to ever make a mistake or pursue a dead end strategy is ridiculous. 10 years ago it was Microsoft and Yahoo who could do no wrong and would soon take over the entire world. As companies become bigger and require more market share to keep their growth rates high enough to please the markets they have a tendency to overreach. Market share and revenue growth do not always equal long term profitability.
People here thought they were diabolically clever and nothing would go wrong. Then Tubes hit them.

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So they spend 600 mil a year to get that data? Seem kinda pricey considering they surely get enough information from their search engine. What would you rather- raw search terms from Google or finding out that the person is a habitual watcher of cute panda home movies (which they would likely know from the search terms on Google already - that is my whole point here.)

If you add on some other data collection points like Google Analytics on god only knows how many pages and also Gmail reading all your mail already, Youtube for data collection at 600 mil a year seems a bit of a rich?

No, Google wanted to monetize it with ads and found they couldn't. They fucked up so far and it is looking like a mistake. Claims this 600 mil a year of value is gained though data collection could only be swallowed the most committed Google fanboy.
Data on millions of kids watching other kids on skate boards is not worth 600 million?

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Originally Posted by Jim_Gunn View Post
"Manner" from heaven, lol? You "should of" known better, Paul!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manna
Whoops, I can't spell. LOL

Quote:
Originally Posted by mynameisjim View Post
I guess I'm the only one who thinks Google is sort of a phony. They had one success with one product. Everything else they've done has either been a buyout, or they just copied another service. In fact, adwords was just a copy of Overture.

If they were such a great company they would be innovating more, but honestly, I can't think of one innovation they've had.

Don't get me wrong, they've made a shitload of money and deserve every penny of it and even the janitor over there is probably smarter than me. But I think they are a one hit wonder.
There are lots of multi millionaires and billionaires who made it because they got in early.

--------------------------------------------------------

For the record I doubt if feeding out thousands of videos to millions of people for free like they have on Youtube is such a great idea. Traffic costs money until it buys something. Just having a surfer on your site is not the solution. Getting him to buy something is.

But as we know a lot feel traffic is king and when you have as much money as Google you can write off $600,000,000 a year to prove traffic is king.

Will it change? Would love someone to point out how. Clearly all the clever guys at Google don't know how to. But then maybe one of my detractors has the answer.
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Old 04-16-2009, 02:47 AM   #59
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In this case, traffic does not necessary have to buy something immediatly to be "monetizable". They can show ads that increase brand awareness etc - with all the new tech and flash video banners that's more than possible. Hey they're video site after all.

For example those skater kids who watch other kids skating, they do not necessary have to buy new skate on the spot - you can show tham your flash ad and promo reel to ensure next time they go shopping they remember your brand (meaning, this thing can work the same way TV ads work).
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Old 04-16-2009, 03:42 AM   #60
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They have only started the monetization. It would be insane to close youtube.
Besides, all the web 2.0 sites are very hard, if not impossible, to monetize.
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Old 04-16-2009, 05:29 AM   #61
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People here thought they were diabolically clever and nothing would go wrong. Then Tubes hit them.

Data on millions of kids watching other kids on skate boards is not worth 600 million?



Whoops, I can't spell. LOL


There are lots of multi millionaires and billionaires who made it because they got in early.

--------------------------------------------------------

For the record I doubt if feeding out thousands of videos to millions of people for free like they have on Youtube is such a great idea. Traffic costs money until it buys something. Just having a surfer on your site is not the solution. Getting him to buy something is.

But as we know a lot feel traffic is king and when you have as much money as Google you can write off $600,000,000 a year to prove traffic is king.

Will it change? Would love someone to point out how. Clearly all the clever guys at Google don't know how to. But then maybe one of my detractors has the answer.

paul what you are completely clueless about is that youtube get paid to feed people free videos. The people who give away the free videos pay for such a right

http://www.google.com/support/youtub...60&ctx=sibling

you know that flash scroller that recommend other videos "like this one"

guess what people pay for those relevance listing.
Down the side where you see similar videos
People pay for those listing.

I would suspect that 80% of youtube revenue comes from this form of advertising.

As more and more stuff user generated stuff get put on youtube it becomes harder and harder to get your stuff found. Which increase demand for this service which increase revenue.
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Old 04-16-2009, 05:39 AM   #62
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I guess I'm the only one who thinks Google is sort of a phony. They had one success with one product. Everything else they've done has either been a buyout, or they just copied another service. In fact, adwords was just a copy of Overture.

If they were such a great company they would be innovating more, but honestly, I can't think of one innovation they've had.

Don't get me wrong, they've made a shitload of money and deserve every penny of it and even the janitor over there is probably smarter than me. But I think they are a one hit wonder.
YEah, but their hit is pretty good... like a cat that can play piano
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Old 04-16-2009, 05:47 AM   #63
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There sure is a way to make money with it. It comes down to thinking outside the box,.
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Old 04-16-2009, 05:51 AM   #64
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valuation of a business sometimes includes intangibles? Meaning there is value to the business even if it the ad revenue isnt directly associated with youtube
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Old 04-17-2009, 12:08 AM   #65
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YouTube signs Sony, preps site for studio content
Move over Hotforwords, Lonelygirl15, and all the other YouTube stars. The video site is bringing in more professionally made content and plans to make it a marquee product.

Some of YouTube's most-watched contributors will get some competition from the likes of Sony Pictures.

The Internet's largest video site on Thursday announced that it has struck deals with a host of entertainment companies, including Sony Pictures, CBS (parent company of CNET News), Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, Lionsgate, Starz, and the BBC, to acquire "thousands" of TV episodes and hundreds of films. The new content will only be available in the United States.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-10221459-93.html

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Google bringing pay-per-view to YouTube

So far, YouTube has been a free, advertising-supported service, but Google plans to build payment mechanisms into its video-sharing site.

"With respect to how it'll get monetized, our first priority is on the advertising side. We do expect over time to see micropayments and other forms of subscription models coming as well," said Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt after the company reported first-quarter profits Thursday. "We'll be announcing additional things in that area literally very, very soon."
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-10221501-93.html

Hulu, here they come!
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Old 04-17-2009, 12:54 AM   #66
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In this case, traffic does not necessary have to buy something immediatly to be "monetizable". They can show ads that increase brand awareness etc - with all the new tech and flash video banners that's more than possible. Hey they're video site after all.

For example those skater kids who watch other kids skating, they do not necessary have to buy new skate on the spot - you can show tham your flash ad and promo reel to ensure next time they go shopping they remember your brand (meaning, this thing can work the same way TV ads work).
In todays hard times "branding" is not keeping factory gates open. Branding is good in good time, in bad it's about sales.

I just think with all the clever people over there at Google they would of had the answer by now. So what ever the answer is I doubt anyone no GFY has the answer.
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Old 04-17-2009, 07:12 AM   #67
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if they keep losing this amount of money, are they going to shut it down eventually?
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Old 04-17-2009, 07:24 AM   #68
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Great articles... We can close this stupid thread now.

Clearly the masters of making money, had a plan to rape youtube of money - as if anyone with a brain thought otherwise. And what better way to do it than having the absolute largest market share for video traffic in the world and opening a VoD service mixed with other micro payments (seeming google is a 3rd party biller too) - It will never stop with them.

Guess the ol'YouTube is Doomed idea can be tossed out the window.
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