thommy

it is always all about money. but the trump supporters will never understand that THEY will never get any thing from what those people made what are called "the establishment".

one of trump´s promises was to go against them but he will never because he is on their payroll.

and he will not fix he will completely destroy the US economy because he have NO CLUE.

he is against higher interests because he likes to see the stocks market on a high level.
he does not think on the next crisis that HE have caused.

the one and only thing in such a financial crises a country can do is to lower interests and give companies the chance to make investments in new machines and infrastructure.
but when the interest rate IS ALREADY low at the beginning of such a crisis there is no help anymore.

and this next crisis is not only predictable when china´s economy slows down, it will be the biggest in the human history and it will take decades to fix it.

and when it is fixed US will be in debt with the whole world and this is also the opposite of a "great country".

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onwebcam

It was apparently said to Sarah McLendon during a press corp interview.. She didn't publish it but others are on record that he did in fact say it.. They were discussing Iran-Contra

Given the Bush family history he meant it in more ways than one i'd bet.

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Scrapper

Coming from someone who's probably made more money than most in doom porn for the last decade, let me weigh in. We'd be lucky if it was "just" a recession next year. Since the vast majority of you don't understand how the market mechanics work I'll fill you in. The 500+ or - swings are algorithms buying and selling, obviously. People actually don't do this all the much anymore unless you're a type of Ameritrade trader. It's actually very simple.

In a flash literally, the algo will sell a stock once it hits a certain rate, regardless. This will trip another company algo to do the same causing a domino effect and why the marked drops are getting bigger, daily. The market can't crash in a day like in 1929 because it's on a type of circuit breaker. It just simply turns off as all trading stops for that day.

This has happened a few times but the worst (October 13, 1989) was the real "Black Friday". So, there's never going to be a "big crash" as it will be an organized exit as the FED will come in and pump free (no/low) interest loans (life) to the markets. IMO, the only real capital gains in the markets these days are the fees being made off the billions on stocks/options being bought/sold as all SM gains have been lost for the year.

Finally, as someone who's been watching this for a decade from a totally different historical perspective, it's going to be far worse than a simple recession. In brief here's why. At the turn of the century, Petroleum changed everyone's lives to where it created more jobs and far more mobility. Also, more personal freedom via automobiles (1910) and far cheaper transit that enabled people to share opinions vastly creating, even more, business/jobs.

Meaning, just from 1920-29 the US economy doubled itself hitting a plateau. It took 20 years as a huge wealth disparity in part, actually created WWI. We are at a very similar stage right now due to how the internet, like petroleum, changed the world.

The internet is much different with all the social media platforms as younger people would rather get that instant crack-dopamine acceptance respect drop than to work hard and buy a house or whatever brought respect to the older generation. They don't care and I don't blame them because for them to be the next Mark Zuckerberg would be about as easy and you guessing the winning lotto numbers.

In short, society has hit a new plateau. There has to be a great change of some sort, and what scares me the most? We just can't start new world wars to cull the herd. It's going to be much much worse. That's a post for another day.

Bladewire

Agreed

There has to be a major culling soon for sustainability. There's no way around it

onwebcam

The Fed rate should be a fixed rate.. Less than 1%.. A group of private bankers shouldn't be determining how much money they get to make on trillions of dollars created out of thin air.

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Bladewire

You are a fucking idiot

I wish the mobile version of GFY would keep me logged in so I wouldn't have to accidently see your stupid posts.

pimpmaster9000

fuck off invader, americans use more resources and pollutes second only to americas production base in china....how american to propose a culling of the herd but it is america that is the biggest contributor to the problem...cull yourselves and do the earth a favor

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directfiesta

looking forward to your next stupid post

Bladewire

Fuck off you sexy uncut Serbian

I agree with you. We should cull all people who voted Trump they are the weakest link in our population. 61,943,670 gone. Would be nice

onwebcam

"The Federal Reserve Banks are not a part of the federal government, but they exist because of an act of Congress. ... While the Board of Governors is an independent government agency, the Federal Reserve Banks are set up like private corporations. Member banks hold stock in the Federal Reserve Banks and earn dividends."

https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-...-reserve-banks


Translation for the stupid: Private bankers deciding how much they earn on trillions made out of thin air...

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directfiesta

You are still stupid .....

If it is so bad , then get rid of it ...

We have here the Bank of Canada :

The Bank of Canada is not politicaly influenced ....

onwebcam

Your banking system was setup the exact same way. "Not politically influenced" Correct because the bankers run the show.

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DraX

Liked your post and agree in many ways, also looking forward to a thread about culling...

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Sabby

There is no recession so stop whining and just do your job and get paid.

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Sabby

And it’s shitty that trump thinks Canadian borders are unsafe because Trudeau has done absolutely nothing but legalize weed and terrorists.

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VRPdommy

The sad reality is the fed is your last defense to control what the policy makers fail to do.
Keeping it from a run-away inflation that ultimately would destroy us all.
Do they over-react at times... yes, but they do that based on the facts on the ground and projections of the future from that.

The folks that have the most 'BITCHING' to do about it always comes when rates go up and those are the folks that have little CASH and plenty of DEBT. They believe in making money with other folks money and they really mean loose other folks money when the profits run dry and they fold the debt without personal liability.

If you were to change the rate to 1%, banks would borrow money from the Fed at 1% and lend it to the government for 2.5%... oh wait... thats what they were doing... and you were paying for it. It was a form to prop-up the banks after the collapse.

You want more ?
The banks were indebted to the government, now it is the other way around and you want to give the banks more money to manipulate commodities ? That makes things cost you more in the case you don't realize it. It costs jobs in the case you didn't realize it.

The Fed is doing a fine job predicting the future and I doubt you can do better. The larger issue is Congress is not doing it's job... they leave it to the fed to clean up the mess they create.

And you have yet to feel the impact of those tax cuts....LOL
Don't worry, the Fed will clean that mess up also. You will be paying for it.

thommy

actually they do NOT overreact as the inflation alone is not the only parameter they have to look at.

they look also from WHERE the money comes from that feeds the economy.

this "boom" you can see i pretty much 100% from consumer credits because the export/import balance is worse than ever and the additional GDP is 1 to 1 the same number as the personal loans.

so if the FED is not increasing the interest rate this will explode and end up in unpaid loans at the end (similar to the 2008 crisis where this loans have been given to people that could not pay them back).

if such a bubble explodes a country runs into a deflation what is also well known as a site effect of a recession.

trumps economy magic was only to LEND the people money that they can spend more.
a healthy economy is based on spending OWN money OR to make MORE money out of the investment that was financed by loans.

private investments and consumption (in compare to business investments) are usually not profitable. with other words: a consumer spends today what he have to work for tomorrow - what is fine - but if he spend all what he makes in this life there is no next life to pay it back and this is why that have to be limited.

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VRPdommy

I'm sorry thommy, but you seem to have the work of the treasury dept confused with the fed. They often work together but base their decisions on different things.

VRPdommy

The price of manipulation....
Nat Gas has been so plentiful they can't find ways to export it fast enough.
So someone explain this price spike... (futures market)
Still believe in the supply/demand fairy tale !

thommy

but of course that can be explained by supply and demand.
i'm not really up to date on oil and gas prices now, but i can tell you what caused the jump (which is not so unusual if you look back until 2014 or 2003).

New weather forecast models pointed to temperatures in mid-November, which are more typical for mid-December, with cold spells in the Midwest, over Texas and the south, and all over New England.

Natural gas prices usually rise before winter, as colder weather increases the need for heating.

In the heating period from November to March, the greatest demand for US gas prevails, as consumption then skyrockets abruptly.

Meanwhile, market participants were looking at the data published in the 46th week.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the total amount of stored natural gas was 3,208 trillion cubic feet (tcf), the lowest level at this time of year for about 15 years.

The last time that stocks were so low in the first week of November dates back to 2003.

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huey

Fed raising interest rate again today. Looks like they are pushing for a recession.

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"They aren't after me, they are AFTER YOU! Im just in their way"
-D.J. Trump

Bladewire

You are a very ignorant alt-right hate fake nic troll

All stock market gains this year have been lost, we're in negative territory now, because of Trumps tarrifs raising inflation and causing uncertainty in all markets.

The fed controls inflation with interest rate hikes. Get a clue hate troll.

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huey

[QUOTE=Bladewire;22384220]You are a very ignorant alt-right hate fake nic troll

All stock market gains this year have been lost, we're in negative territory now, because of Trumps tarrifs raising inflation and causing uncertainty in all markets.

The fed controls inflation with interest rate hikes. Get a clue hate troll.[/QUO

So tell me about this inflation you speak of?

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"They aren't after me, they are AFTER YOU! Im just in their way"
-D.J. Trump

onwebcam

Worse, they plan to hike all the way through '19. No relief until '20. Housing market was already on the decline due to them raising rates so fast.. It's literally in a state of shock right now and needed a pause.. Sellers will be running for the door shortly and buyers will be choosier due to rates.. 2-3 months when rate locks run out we will be hearing much more about home prices in rapid decline.

Not good news for people like Rochard who are still sitting on houses upside down from the last crash.

Moron

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DraX

I would appreciate if you could in detail explain how this culling of 61 million American citizens would be organized? That's 61 million people with a different worldview than yourself.

I'm eagerly awaiting a mature response from you...

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VRPdommy

The fed has no real concern for consumer inflation.
It worries about wage inflation.
That's caused when unemployment hits rock bottom and employers have to raise the wages to attract the needed help from someone else. (competing for workers)

They are on kinda shaky ground because their are so many that are not counted as unemployed. Others that are working multiple part time jobs and plenty of others who are working part time and want full time employment.(underemployed)

Then you have this management overtime without paying overtime issue. That is yet a story for some other thread.

The skinny is they do not really know what the employment 'reserves' are. (uncounted folks that will work but not sign up looking)

But know that rates will only go up when the fed thinks wages are going to rise to fast.
It has nothing at all to do with the price of bread, gas or homes.
However, if you can't control wage growth, it will show up in consumer inflation.
Nobody pays more without passing the cost downstream.

onwebcam

None of it works if consumers aren't spending (or borrowing)




Why Leveraged Loans Are A Better Signal Than High-Yield Bonds
Oct 23, 2018, 06:57am
"So, from a fundamental standpoint, from a technical standpoint and from pure lack of readiness for any weakness, I'd look to the leveraged loan market as the better warning sign for larger problems (if we are going to get them)."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertc.../#792d0147e862


The Fed just nailed the coffin shut.... If they wanted it open they would have paused their rate hikes.

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Bladewire

Fake nics blaming anyone but Trump, as we predicted, it's part of the trolls mental defect, taking no responsibility just like Julian Assange.

onwebcam

You can kiss the Fed's ass all day long. It's not going to change the facts. The fact is, prepare yourself..

Lenders have been BEGGING for business in the past month or so.. What's next? They take higher risks.. Welcome to 2008 all over again, on steroids.

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Bladewire

You are a defective troll

You excuse everything Trump does

You put blame on innocent people and entities to take the fall for Trumps failures

You are a despicable specimen of multiple mental deficites & defects.

You are a coward that wants to be anonymous online yet be taken seriously by the same people online you cower away from and want to hide from.

onwebcam

Trump doesn't raise rates.. He didn't ask for them to be raised more times in the last year than the ENTIRE Obama Admin.. The Federal Reserve is my enemy.. They are yours as well.. Eventually you will figure that out.. My guess is sooner rather than later. Obviously 2008 wasn't enough of a lesson for everyone. Cue up round 2. Only this time around they won't be able to cut your rate to save you some money and keep you in your house.. You're on your own.

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BaldBastard

.. Meanwhile Australia predicts a surplus next year ;)

I've run my own super/ 401 fund here for the past 15 years, basically I sign on the dotted line and a broker does the rest. They changed laws here this year and that's not as favourable as it once was, so we are closing that down and starting a fresh. Portfolio's were all sold down in Nov, paper works been done and now just sit on a pile of cash. Was fate more than my doing... but talk about perfect timing heheh, will buy in again next year as opportunities present themselves.

> Thanks Trump!

onwebcam

Expect that to change.. This isn't just a US problem.. If you remember correctly pretty much the entire World crashed in '08.. That's the great part about globalism.


Canadian house price slump makes buyers wary for 2019: Don Pittis

Decline was supposed to entice priced-out buyers, but so far there's little evidence

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/can...tate-1.4948928


I backed out of a contract this month myself... Going to hold off until at least April before I even consider making another purchase. That is unless the sellers get desperate which is what I'm banking on. One is already borderline foreclosure.

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Bladewire

An anonymous Russian hate troll pretending to be American online and pretending to know about the American economy so he can fail at defending Trump. Sad loser

OnwebScam:

Wrong on the economy

Wrong in his conspiracy theories

Wrong on Russian dominance

Wrong on EVERY prediction about Trump's investigation

VRPdommy

Oh... come on folks.
There are no indicators YET of any kind of crash.
Just a slower growth period, but still growing.
It remains to be seen with what the next steps are in things like this trade war escalating and consequences of those tax breaks and borrowing costs if they continue to spend more with less taxes coming in.

So, it's slower growth and a caution on what's next ! Choose those next steps wisely.

VRPdommy

Blame it all on the FED !
I doubt you have the understanding for this, you are just routing with trump.
Trump is just looking for a future scapegoat for his failing policies.

And since he is nothing but debt, he is going to have to find new loans to pay his new interest. A little more difficult to do as he has done before with all the eyes watching the family biz right now.

Bladewire

Strange how Republicans have full control of the house the senate and the executive branch for 2 full years yet are not at all responsible for the economy imagine that.

hueyp

Raising interest rates fucks with mortgages. If you want a slow down start there.

hueyp

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was unrevised from the “advance” estimate released in October. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

How do you like them apples?

Bladewire

I don't talk to the alt-right hate fake nic troll with 2 posts since 2003


You are now blocked you lose your son of a bitch cunt deep asshole cum sucker

huey

Classic NPC response.

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"They aren't after me, they are AFTER YOU! Im just in their way"
-D.J. Trump

thommy

[QUOTE=huey;22384223]look at this chart and check the 10 years chart and then compare it to the FED´s interest steps.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-.../inflation-cpi

than even you might see that the inflation is on that level BECAUSE of the interst steps the FED made.

the US inflation rate raised from 1% in 2017 to now 2,5% - it would be at 4% already without the interest steps of the FED.

as you are crying on high interests I assume that you are one of the victims that lend more money as you can pay back and heated up the economy with borrowed money.

what about the people that safed money for the bad times?
do you think they should pay 100 k for a hamburer when they are old because the value of their money got lost while it was lend to companies that made high profits with this invest ?

interest rate in the US averaged 5.69 percent from 1971 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in march of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in december of 2008.

you are now at 2,5% !!!!!

do you wish the 0.25% from 2008 and the crisis back?

I don´t know why you guys are right wing nut heads BECAUSE you have no skills in economy or if you have no skills BECAUSE you are right wing nut heads.
but actually THIS IS what all of you have in common: NO PLAN - NO SKILLS - NO IDEA

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VRPdommy

Well,
If you are foolish enough to not take a fixed rate, shame on you.
If a floating rate got you the loan, maybe you should not have.
If you think the fed is crashing the economy, just wait till it does and refinance at a low fixed rate afterwards.
For most, it does not take money out of the economy in the near term, it just extends the length of the loan.

For a biz however, where the length is normally fixed, it does take money out of the economy.

As far as I am concerned, with growth over 2%, inflation (consumer) under 5% and unemployment under 5% and interest rates under 5%, to many have been spoiled for to long.

I have never seen a economy that defied gravity and the number set. This one is no different.

Folks give Reagan credit for the big tax cut back in the 80's. Nobody remembers the giant tax hike (record breaker) the following year when they realized they were not getting enough revenue and the deficit was going to explode.

I see current events no different.

Here is a new way to look at it all...
Who needs the banks ?
Go out and finance your money needs in the private markets !
Surely you can convince your safe bet to someone in the private markets for less money !
It's a free market, remember ! Perhaps you are willing to lend your money ?
LOL

onwebcam

I've been railing on the fed for many years.... Even right here on GFY... Even before '08... Back before they had to come out and admit they were a private banking conglomerate that answers to no one.. What, you don't remember that? When they told Congress to "GFY, we don't answer to you or the President (Obama)"

Way back then I was called a "kook" for saying it.. To this day people STILL believe it's a branch of the government.... It's not.. And they told everyone (including the idiots in Congress who thought they had say) this themselves... It's now written in plain English on their website for fucks sake..

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crockett

It's only Republicans who fail to remember this.. The same thing is happening with Trump's tax cuts. Spending keeps growing but tax revenue is down..

We will reach a trillion dollar deficit next year thanks to the tax cuts and social security will now go insolvent 10 years earlier than before the cuts.

VRPdommy

Well,
it's simple then.
GFY - Go Fund Yourself...
Private markets are there. You don't need those public banks. IT'S A FREE MARKET !
Considering the amount of failure, I prefer more of this was funded by private equity that was not backed by government (taxpayer) money.

Consider the fed rate a 'risk factor' being baked into the general taxpayer market.
Private equity is not near as forgiving or tolerant.

VRPdommy

Isn't it funny... OR NOT
that the folks who control spending ie House of Representatives, have pretty much been in republican hands for the last 20 years. That much don't really matter to me.

I look at those deficits and ask... didn't they tell us all this was bad to spend like this ? That's why we gave them power to do so and they made it exponentially worse, not better.

I guess it's OK if you can find someone else to blame it on.
Oh... what's that being whispered in my ear...
because the terrorist in Iraq... oh wait...
because of wmd in Iraq.... oh wait...
because of Obama.... oh wait...
because of democrats ???

Don't anyone get me wrong. I hate both party's.
But it sure looks like anytime a politician starts pointing a finger, they really are looking in a mirror.
Nothing is, as it is told to us ! And that is almost expected to be opposite of what is said now. Especially listening to Trump.

So, it's not bad enough they spent like crazy, they went ahead and chopped future revenue and we still are supporting/paying for all this failed military action around the globe. At a cost that continues to grow.

Just some lazy chair perspective, but payback time for all this money is going to hit home sooner than many think. It's quite OK to have debt, but the level this is going to reach in the next 2 years is going to be intolerable. It's going to tie our hands militarily to boot.