gideongallery

and if all the prisoners keep quiet they get off scott free

the problem is the nash equilibrium works against that and results in a shift to everyone confessing.

You really think a fight against the nash equilibrium is going to work, even though it as never worked once yet.

Good luck

__________________

“When crimes occur through the mail, you don’t shut the post office down,” Steve Wozniak

mynameisjim

I think there was an article written that said the poor economy could be the end of all this free stuff. Even though it seems contrary.

I guess logically, a case could be made that when a surfer spends HIS money to get a membership, why is he going to give it to everyone else for free? That actually seems more in line with human behavior.

But I don't think it's your normal collector/good customer that is stealing your content. It's the guys that get a cracked password or join then chargeback. The rip the site with a program that runs in the background. I think if there was a combo of some DRM and streaming you could strike a balance between protecting your content and keeping members happy.

Someone just needs to put it all together. I think the pieces are all there.

__________________

Twistys Tim

Instances of the Nash equilibrium being defeated / bypassed usually involve the creations of cartels, which involves large scale cooperation and sharing of information.

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mynameisjim

The Nash equilibrium has holes in it and recent work by game theorists are starting to prove that.

A simple game called the Travelers Dilema by Kaushik Basu shows that.

A Nash equilibrium is not gospel and it is way overused in systems where it really has no application.

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fuzebox

You have no idea the kind of volume a lot of the tubes are doing to paysites... They may give away full scenes but surfers are still paying for quality + variety from the exact sites they want.

TheDoc

Volume my friend... that's what happens when you have that much traffic.

We both know piracy makes people never buy again.. it happens, it sucks.. But that doesn't mean the average guy watching a 20 minute tube movie knows it's pirated, it doesn't mean they wouldn't buy porn.. Our problem is, we never get to pitch them other than maybe a url stamp.

Overall though, the tube creates so much raw volume that a repeating header link that says something like free dvd downloads, produces traffic and sales...

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TheDoc

Some good ideas.. just shows how important it is to think different to solve the problem rather than continue with the same boxed in thinking.

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gideongallery

i suggest you reread the travelers dilema

look carefully at Payoff matrix of the dilema when you do that you realize that travelers dilema is infact a non binomial varient of the nash equilibrium

(in the same way as the three gun man solution)

to many people confuse the simplist example (prisoners dilema) with everything nash came up with.

f(n) in a nash equibrium is not limited to f(2).

Hense multi-participant competitions like the 3 gun man solution.

__________________

“When crimes occur through the mail, you don’t shut the post office down,” Steve Wozniak

fuzebox

Err this thread lost me.

DirtyDave

All that really needs to be done is to require any site at all that shares video to have 2257 documentation and be registered with the content producer as a valid "license" holder with no exceptions. If you don't have 2257 for every video then you are illegal and your fined and shut down.

The fines alone would pay for all operating expenses. We already have the FBI, FCC, FDA, etc., how about a new agency actually called the DMCA.

__________________
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JayAllan

I wish it were that easy. I for one have always said that 2257 is a great thing for adult. HOWEVER, this is a US law. It is not enforceable outside our boarders, and as such is easily circumvented by anyone who wishes to engage in dishonest behavior. They simply move their companies and servers out of jurisdiction.

If you use for example the Nash Equilibrium ... J/K

gideongallery

funny

__________________

“When crimes occur through the mail, you don’t shut the post office down,” Steve Wozniak

mynameisjim

I'm not sure I follow what you are trying to say here.

The point is that observations don't match with what traditional game theory would predict. Unless you start to use interactive epistemology (which is now an off-shoot of game theory) to factor in why people act rationally or non-rationally.

But you originally said that it is impossible to challenge a nash equilibrium because nobody has which is not a correct statement. There are an infinite number of situations where the predictions of game theory (including nash equilibrium) do not match observations regardless of the variations.

But my specialty is naked women, not game theory or the work of Nash.

__________________

SoloGirlsContent

BINGO..BINGO...and fuckin BINGO!

watch for 2009-10 to shake a new asshole into the porn game. DVD producers are like rats on a ship right now. Content producers such , as myself our looking at more niches and fetishes and dealing directly with surfers. I'm also looking at ( NEW, NON LA PORN) girls that will be more interactive in their sites with camshows, blogs and custom requests and branch off into mainstream projects with the models.

gideongallery

nash theis paper was over 200 pages long. The mathimatical formula for his equilbrium was very expansive.

it handled multi-participant/ multi-choice algorithms.

Many of the theories which were considered challenges (interact epistemology) were in fact explained properly by the full mathimatical formula, and the expression of the actions either by the multi-participant or multi-choice variables.

It is only when people try and force a multi-choice or multi partricipant nashian equilbrium into a binomial decision matrix (drm vs non drm) simply because the simplist form of the equation (prisoners dilema) does that.

In many case it will work because the assumption that created that forced senerio results in pushing the concequences of the matrix forward.

as long as you force i binomial matrix on a muti-nomial matrix and fight against the predicted pattern you are going to lose.

If you take into account all the multi-nomial characteristics, you can add things that will change the nash equilibrium point to something you really want to happen.

see product placement as a classic example of turning a binomial participant model into a tri-nomial participant model.

__________________

“When crimes occur through the mail, you don’t shut the post office down,” Steve Wozniak

Dagwolf

Tubes is bad, very bad

__________________
Sleep well, and dream of large women.

FreeOnes

Will you please pay and put all your time in this?

__________________

The new FreeOnes!

andy83

__________________

Dagwolf

Better interactive games, LIVE CAMS, chat, phone sex....

Old time stuff that tubes can't steal.

__________________
Sleep well, and dream of large women.

Jack Sparrow

As long as everybody keeps talking about tubes running illegal videos AND (!!!!) STILL embed them all day long there wont be any change.

We'll see the same ol' threads about tubes (insert rant here) and how we are all losing money, but if i would offer you a something to embed, fully legal videos, would you be so honest to not embed full (illegal) videos from other tubesites?

Im getting a bit tired of reading about how our industry is fucked up, and nobody really taking action although your all right.

(not talking to someone in particular, no offense intended)

doridori

do you guys want to get back at them ? use http://flvhunt.com to suck their bandwith dry.

Tippy

I dont know too much about this industry but couldnt something like this stop some or most of the video stealing from member areas...

As mentioned previously, people gain access to member areas via shared passwords or other means, these people looking to simply rip all the content prob. dont plan on renewing their membership the following month or week or whatever.

What if new members had a waiting period, like say 2 months before they could actually start downloading content to their computers. The guys who signup just to rip all the content should be ticked off at this point and move on to an easier target... obviously this wouldnt affect current members so it shouldnt bother them much and hopefully you can explain it well enough, but not too much detail to new members.

Something like that anyways, new members would only be able to stream the content, once they have been a member for 2 months they gain access to a secure section with the videos available in avi or whatever to download?

???

Mike

Davy

youku.com
Chinese youtube equivalent.
There are hundreds of hollywood movies on there. Search for imdb or divx.

And welcome to the internet, btw.

__________________
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ICQ 14-76-98 <-- I don't use this at all

Davy

What are you posting in here?
People seem to have forgotten about this thread already?
http://www.gfy.com/showthread.php?t=...t=shap+standup
The excuse you gave back then was ridiculous.

Fucking hypocrite.

__________________
---
ICQ 14-76-98 <-- I don't use this at all

Shap

If you don't like us don't do business with us. It's that simple

mynameisjim

You mean their whopping 6% U.S. traffic. That's a Chinese site.

"Welcome to the internet"?? Not sure if you meant that as a dig, but knowledge of a Chinese bootleg site doesn't really make anyone an expert.

Anyway, I've seen the sites playing Hollywood movies, someone even posted the full Iron Man video here about a month ago. But none are a huge threat yet. When they are, I guarantee you will see the industry mobilize and fight them. That was my point.

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brandonstills

They should release videos of higher quality. There are plenty of people that can stream video at 6 Mbps down and yet the max it streams at is like 1200 Kbps most of the time. Some VOD sites offer 2 Mbps but their bandwidth is so crappy you are lucky if you can get 1 Mbps.

That is something the tubes aren't offering.

__________________

Brandon Stills
Industry and programming veteran
[email protected] | skype: brandonstills | ICQ #495-171-318

Snake Doctor

I wonder if all the people who don't like DRM because it can be cracked leave their cars and homes unlocked when they are away?
After all, someone could pick the lock or disable the alarm anyways. Show me a car alarm or a home security system and I'll show you someone who can get around it, blah blah blah.

I wonder if the people who won't use DRM because the members don't like it realize that their members don't like being charged monthly either?
Perhaps you should stop charging them, they'll stay around much longer.

Everything is a trade-off. If you charge less you get longer retention, but at some point the increase in retention isn't enough to make up for the loss in monthly revenue.
If you charge more you make more today, but have lower long term retention, and at some point your overall revenue will go down as a result.

If you don't protect your content you may keep some members around longer today, but you are potentially losing out on new members who will never join because they can get your product for free.

If you protect your content you may lose some members today, but may gain new members as a result because they can no longer get your product for free.

Everything is a trade-off, and it's up to each business owner to decide what to do with his own product. If I had my druthers, everyone would protect their content, because unfortunately your decision to not protect your product makes it harder for me to sell mine.

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sig too big

tony286

well said

Owen Pierce

ok... this thread has way to much in it for me to read the whole damn thing...
but DRM is definitely a good assistance to protecting your content. I saw someone asked if anyone actually uses DRM, well... Netflix uses WM DRM, and I think they might be kinda big

Of course any sort of encryption can be broken, but it's better to have it than to not.

Nothing is going to stop people from taking DVD content and putting it online.

And... I'm not a lawyer or anything, but I would imagine that the only way to even consider taking down tube sites, would be class action suits from all the studios with stolen content on a tube site. Doing that nonsense one at a time will never come together.

I'll let yall know when I have content tracking setup for all these sites. I'm sick of the bottom feeder thieves.

__________________
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stevo

Great thread...

Even if all the paysites DRM'd their content, we'd still have a huge problem. The tubes would just keep on ripping full length movies from unprotected DVDs.

To me the main problem isn't getting my exclusive content ripped onto a tube site. The main problem is the vast amount of free/high quality content on the tubes, that fulfills every web surfers desire for porn. They have very litte reasoning to pay for porn, even if it is exclusive content, for they have a vast collection of new material for free at the tubes. After visiting the tubes, seeing how big they are getting and seeing how the quality is increasing, I sometimes wonder why people continue to pay for my paysites.

Surprisingly ratios are still pretty similar compared to the past few years. The problem is, tubes are killing all the movie/picture posts. Traffic is drying up. So even though ratios are similar, the traffic numbers are drying up for my advertising campaigns. This is my main problem and one i need to solve if i wish to stay in business the next few years. My movie gallery traffic is down 50%+ because of tubes and FHGs. I'm running out of traffic ideas.

DWB

ALL the tubes would die if they could not make money. Pricks like AFF along with other dating site, cam sites and pricks like Brazzers will pay them so they can continue to make money, regardless of how small the profit is.

Stop supporting the people who support tubes. That should be step 1.

Buuuuuut... this is porn and we can't get together on anything so the tubes will continue. We all deserve each other.

Barefootsies

Exactly right.

Many of the tubes have went under already. 2008 had hundreds if not thousands for sale on some other boards. Basically people could not afford their bandwidth bills, even if a smaller tube.

Tubes are a fool's errand for 95% of the people doing them. They are never going to make any real money, and they may just cover bandwidth bill for others.

There are, maybe 5%, who will actually make big pay days off the tubes, and know how to properly market and upsell from them. They are the minority. There are no Google's of Porn who are going to pay millions in a bandwidth bill, and keep fucking around waiting for their advertising model to catch up.

Most businesses do not work that way, nor have a war chest of loot to piss money away crossing their fingers and toes. By the end of 2009, a lot of the tubes will be gone. As will about 40% of this industry. Especially with the credit card changes.

Viva la 2009!

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Gals4free

I have been going back and forth on this topic ALOT over the last few months, since I operate a LEGAL tube site myself at the moment, and the ONLY competitive advantage the illegal tube sites have over our site is the full length scenes. We got superior video quality, streaming, better browsebility etc etc. I think DRM is not the answer to the problem. It might slow down the problem a little bit, but there are many other ways to get the same content from another place then just the members area, plus it will have an impact on sales.

The approach i think programs and studios should take is to MONITOR the top 5 or top 10 tube sites ALOT more aggresively. Last week i spend about 30minutes on sites like xvideos.com, keezmovies.com, tube8.com and i pasted about 60-70 full length scenes to program owners i got in my ICQ. This was with very little effort and time. Its a DISGRACE how some programs do NOT monitor their content at all. Naughtyamerica is the worst example and they are a fucking joke, they will drop on my list of promotion, because they don't take this issue seriously. On xvideos alone i think i could get 50 full scenes from NA in 10mins. If i can do that, so can one of their employees or any monitoring service.. etc.

If programs would do this more aggressively, and this doesnt cost 20k a month, so basically you flood the tube sites with more DMCA's then they can handle, i think thats a step in the right direction already. There are obviously mixed feelings over brazzers in this topic as they buy ads on alot of those illegal tube sites, but think of 1 tube site that has full scenes from them (not the odd one that didnt get picked up yet). You won't find many... WHY? because they monitor this in-house and get on the fucking case. This is something ALOT of programs can learn from.

Example:

It doesn't take a genius to know that Sunny Leone has just shot hardcore for vivid.com. So if someone at vivid.com would at least monitor their contract girls etc. Then shit like this would not be out there:

http://www.xvideos.com/video74254/su..._hot_threesome
http://www.xvideos.com/video74235/bl...ot_threes ome
http://www.xvideos.com/video67893/ho...ch_fucked_hard
http://www.xvideos.com/video74215/ho...ucks_huge_cock

This is just a really quick example. The same goes for many companies, studios and affiliate programs. I just don't think everyone understands the seriousness of the situation just yet, and think its ALOT of work or a lawsuit is needed to get content taken down.

Last week i send brandon from fantasygirlrevenue.com links to alot of catalincruz.com content on xvideos, tube8, keezmovies, xhamster etc. He send emails out, today i checked all of it is gone on all those sites.

Those are my 2 cents... i just think alot of sponsors need to step up to the plate and MONITOR the tubes more, as its not that hard to find your content.

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DirtyDave

So then block anything coming from that ISP into America for as long as they are contributing to an illegal act. Do that and watch how fast the ISP takes that site down.

If a foreign site is hosting documented CP and the US government finds out about it, I bet it won't be accessible here in the US for very long!

__________________
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AlmightyZeus

I totally agree & I'd like to add that most paysites and studios have adopted a let's wait and see mentality instead of going ape shit.

Dear Adult Industry, where has your Pride & Passion gone?

Paul Markham

Dean you are preaching from my hymn book. LOL I've been telling people to do this for ages and they simply tell you it will not work. Then come up with ideas that will never work either.

Like lawsuits, seriously you need a pair of decent size balls to go to court in your own country. Mini balls will get you no where with Tubes.

Aaron stop the "lock down" theory it's bs and will not work. Here's why.

I write the most complicated unbreakable code in the world and it simply can't be beaten. I know never going to happen. So the Tube owners are racking their brains and faced with ruin. While the boy that cleans the toilets goes to the local porn shop, buys a box full of DVDs that were recorded before I wrote the code and they encrypt them and keep winning over our members as if I had never written the code.

The flaws in this are easy to spot, no one can write something that can't be cracked and even if it could there are thousands of DVD titles for $10 a pop to be bought with 5-6 scenes.

You can install throttles on the downloads and this slows it down and you can watermark everything. Lots of Tube stuff is not watermarked.

__________________



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Gals4free

The "lets wait and see" mentality is exactly the issue. Noone has properly stepped up.

Btw, hit me up on ICQ, need to talk to you

__________________
At Kodify we have in excess of 5M visitors a day through our network that consists of www.PornTube.com www.4Tube.com www.PornerBros.com and www.Fux.com. We operate a very successful Content Publishing Platform at http://content.porntube.com where you can expose your content to our audience!

Paul Markham

Spot on truth.

The problem is when techies take over a business. Most of the people selling porn here are not wanking off to porn, they're webmasters who whack off to the latest gimmick, HD, DRM, or any program. They are also people who think anyone with a camera can shoot porn, it can be shot for peanuts and the members are fools for buying it when so much is around for free.

They have sites full of stuff that repeats itself over and over again, is faked by model who don't care and then expect the members to stick around for months. They simply don't get the concept of this.

FOR THE PORN CONSUMER A TUBE SITE IS OFTEN A BETTER OPTION THAN PAYING FOR PORN.

It's totally beyond them to figure out why their sites with 40 to 100 scenes shot on a slim budget by a guy with little clue who thinks image definition is the key to porn and a model who is more worried about when she will get home than putting out a good scene. Is being passed over for a site that give thousands of full length scenes, updates all the time and is free. And dream if they could stop Tubes stealing they would see an end to it and could go back to producing shit and throwing traffic at it.

Sorry if that sounds angry but you guys have been going round in circles for years and done FUCK ALL about it.

__________________



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Paul Markham

Problem is you need to know what is unique, what will sell, what's good porn and be prepared to spend the money to create it. Most don't have a clue and produce the same scene a 100 times and throw traffic at it.

Including me with the content store because no one would buy unique content that costs money to produce. It was produced for what people will pay for.

__________________



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Paul Markham

Fuck the surfer to buy more traffic has been the methodology of this part of the business since I came on the Net. That is why the surfer prefers Tubes and until we change it we will never combat Tubes.

For the 8 years I've been active most people spent more on getting traffic that does not spend than keeping or converting the traffic that does spend. For most of that 8 years ratios have got worse, but with new customers coming in there were always excuses to be found to cover up falling ratios. Today there is no great increase in traffic in fact many see a decrease and the ratios are still getting worse.

The excuse now is they prefer a shitty Tube site to a paysite and it's the Tube sites fault.

So that's it because so few have a decent idea on the first page and I doubt if the next two will change. But here's what I'm doing to combat Tubes.

I'm opening a site that can't be replicated by any clown with a camera, for any money.
I'm beefing up the members area of PMT with new content and free live web cam.
And I'm looking at the prices and memberships we offer.

The rest of you can dream on about locking down content and taking Megarotic to court.

__________________



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stickyfingerz

Love you guys at Twistys, but how in the world do any of you think this is a good long term biz model allowing to download and keep your content? How is your content different than that on dvds? Have you ever walked into an adult bookstore, paid 29.00 at the door and walked out with an armful of dvds, then come back the next day take another armful, next day the same etc etc for 30 days? You would think that was absurd and the owners were insane and surely going to go out of business in short order. Welp that is what online adult is doing.

What is the difference other than the packaging? Dvds have to pay for the hardcopy, case, and distribution. We have to pay the exact same prices to produce our content, model costs, editing, production etc. The only difference is instead of paying a distributor to get out our content like the dvd side, we have to pay for site design, traffic, advertising, affiliate costs, processing fees etc. Fact is we probably spend more money in the long run getting our content to the masses where we can monetize it.

Now why in the FUCK does the surfer deserve to keep the content for a rental price? Honestly? Does everyone forget WHY we have the model we do? Its not because people WANTED to give away the content and allow them to keep it, it was because we DID NOT have the means when paysites started to take the content back after they customers 30 day period was up.

STREAMING ENCRYPTED H.264. Its not been cracked, put it on a nice cdn network and its nearly instant for anyone on broadband, and there ARE WAYS to deter theft. Im a super tiny little fish, and guess what I took our own money, came up with a concept, worked it out, got a developer, paid them, and now have a setup that I would say is 98% NOT going to leave my members areas, and its pretty much not noticed by the surfer.

In fact many of the webmasters that were interested in our method did not even notice what we are doing till I pointed it out to them when they saw the demo.

Stop repeating "drm bad" constantly. Its not the same drm like it used to be, and the way we do it is completely different than anything that pissed off surfers.

Why don't one of you big boys with money to develop and distribute a new delivery method hit me up and we'll get together on how your content can be kept your content.

Barefootsies

As have you toots....

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Enough Said.

"Would you rather live like a king for a year or like a prince forever?"

stickyfingerz

Ive had a solution for most of this year up and running in our members areas.

Bosco

That sounds like a racist comment to me....terrible.

Bosco

Sounds like he is being a prick with him with the "Bitch" comment...

Bosco

Well said

Tippy

" People Who Pay For Porn, Will Always Pay For Porn... "

I beg to differ, give me their email addresses and after I show them something I can assure you they wont be paying anymore... its just a matter of time before they jump ship.

Robbie

All these theories.
All this talk about "what if".
Shap talking about top tier sites.

Reality...I did something and my little paysite is kicking ass. All the "top tier" sites that I promote? Nada. They used to do real well. Can't make sales with them now no matter what I do or how much traffic I send.

Reality is that these days, a lot of surfers use me and my fellow TGP/Free Site brethren as a guide. They check out the hosted galleries. Click on the tours. And then they go search the torrent sites for the full members areas that are sitting there waiting for them for free.

I see this from the traffic side and the paysite side. For me it irrefutable. I moved to encrypted streaming only and the results have been a turnaround in both sales and retention.

You can say whatever you want. But NOBODY is happy when they pay good money for something that is available for free. And yes, I understand the nervousness of a site making millions of dollars in rebills about changing ANYTHING.

It's the kind of decision that would scare the shit out of anybody.

It scared me with my little operation, I know it would scare me even more if I were 100 times bigger.

But in the end, when I saw my latest update that I wrote, shot, edited, and updated myself out on the torrents within hours of it going up in my members area...I realized I had to do something.

I did, it worked for me.

Free wins everytime over not free. You can keep shooting as fast as you can and it will still beat you. The key is to stop your stuff from being taken.

Encrypted streaming is completely transparent to the user. No different to their experience than watching any streaming vid. I use h264 encoded .mp4's and I can stream a 500 mb file INSTANTLY. And the user can move forward and backward anywhere in the scene.

It's a very nice experience for viewing porn without giving it away for them to upload to a torrent or tube. And if your stuff is really good, and I define "good" as giving YOUR members exactly what they want...they will rebill better than before.

Why? Because they no longer feel cheated by paying you to be a member when everybody else is getting it for free.

This is not a theory or a guess. My words are based on my experience and what I did and the results I have seen. Encrypted streaming and hiring removeyourcontent.com has worked very effectively.

Now if only the economy would stop crashing down around us...

__________________
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ClaudiaMarie.Com

stickyfingerz

You tell em Robbie. Now who nagged you to death till you took the risk? Btw I wrote article about this for avn for the March issue.

Now the big boys need to start stepping up before (if its not already) its too late.